梯形模糊事故树预测算法的改进及应用  

Improvement and application of trapezoidal fuzzy fault tree prediction algorithm

作　　者：张园园[1] 孙麟 刘明[1] ZHANG Yuanyuan;SUN Lin;LIU Ming(School of Environment and Safety Engineering,Liaoning Shihua University,Fushun Liaoning 113001,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁石油化工大学环境与安全工程学院,辽宁抚顺113001

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2020年第11期156-161,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51206075);国家重点研发项目(2018YFC0808500)。

摘　　要：为解决传统梯形模糊事故树预测算法中基本事件相乘结果线性近似的不足,基于模糊数学的截集定理和表现定理,提出一种改进的梯形模糊事故树预测算法;以煤矿火灾事故为例,分5种情况预测模拟事故后果,依据传统和改进的梯形模糊事故树预测算法,验证新算法的可靠性和适用性;绘制近似隶属度图形和精确隶属度图形,计算电器设备失爆事件的近似模糊重要度和精确模糊重要度。研究结果表明:新算法具有良好的适应性,5种情况新算法均能提高预测准确性;基本事件梯形模糊数的盲度和核越大、基本事件的数据序列越长,新算法改进效果越明显。In order to address deficiencies of linear approximation of basic events’multiplication results in traditional trapezoidal fuzzy fault tree prediction algorithm,an improved algorithm was proposed based on both cut set theorem and representation theorem of fuzzy mathematics.Then,with fire accidents in a coal mine as an example,accident consequence was simulated in five cases,and furthermore,reliability and adaptability of the new algorithm was verified according to both traditional and improved trapezoidal fuzzy fault tree prediction methods.Finally,approximate and accurate membership degree graphs were drawn,and approximate and accurate fuzzy importance degree of electrical equipment explosion events were calculated.The results show that the new algorithm features good adaptability,and its application in five cases can all improve prediction accuracy.The bigger blindness and core of basic events’trapezoidal fuzzy number and the longer data sequence are,the more significant improvement new algorithm will achieve.

关 键 词：梯形模糊事故树 预测算法 隶属度 截集定理 煤矿火灾事故 

分 类 号：X928.02[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]