新兴市场经济周期:特征事实、影响因素与研究展望  

Emerging Market Business Cycle:Stylized Facts,Determinant Factors,and Future Research

作　　者：聂丽 颜蒙[2] 安真 NIE Li;YAN Meng;AN Zhen(School of Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,China;Department of Economics,University of New Hampshire,Durham 03824,USA;Financial Research Center,Postal Scientific Research and Planning Academy,Beijing 100096,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院,吉林长春130022 [2]新罕布什尔大学经济系,美国达勒姆03824 [3]邮政科学研究规划院金融研究中心,北京100096

出　　处：《东北师大学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第1期132-141,共10页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CJL006)。

摘　　要：随着新兴市场在全球经济中的作用愈发重要,新兴市场经济周期对世界经济周期将产生更加显著的影响。面对新型区域经济合作组织的形成,新兴市场经济周期的解释机制也将更加复杂。为了更好地把握新兴市场经济周期的研究动态,在总结新兴市场经济周期特征事实的基础上,进一步归纳了现有文献对新兴市场经济周期产生机制的解释,并展望了关于新兴市场经济周期的未来研究方向。中国作为全球最大的新兴市场经济体,中国经济周期行为不仅有自身的特殊性,也存在与其他新兴市场经济周期的相似性,深入理解新兴市场经济周期对研究中国宏观经济周期有着极为有益的参考价值。As emerging market economies play an increasingly important role in the global economy,the emerging market business cycle generates a more substantial effect on the global business cycle.In view of the formation of new regional cooperation organizations,the mechanism explaining the emerging market business cycle becomes more complicated.To better understand the research dynamics of the emerging market business cycle,this paper first summarizes the stylized facts and the mechanism generating emerging market business cycle and further points out the direction of future research.As the largest emerging market economy,China s business cycle not only has its unique regular pattern but also has similarity with other countries.Therefore,the thorough understanding of emerging market business cycle has beneficial reference value for studying China s macroeconomic cycle.

关 键 词：新兴市场 经济周期 特征事实 冲击类型 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济] F842.684[经济管理—保险]