主权信用风险如何传导实体?——来自发展中国家的数据  

How Sovereign Credit Risk Spreads to Enterprises--A Look at Developing Countries

作　　者：中债资信国别研究团队 

机构地区：[1]中债资信评估有限责任公司

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2020年第10期41-50,共10页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情加速了全球主权债务风险的暴露,所引发的主权信用级别下调浪潮不仅推升了主权债务违约风险,也可能通过财政、金融和汇率渠道向企业信用风险传导与蔓延。本文以阿根廷、印度尼西亚与俄罗斯曾发生的金融危机以及本次全球新冠疫情为例,对部分发展中国家主权信用风险向非金融企业信用风险的传导机制与实际影响进行了分析,对市场中高度依赖补贴的国有企业、主要公共采购承包商、资源和能源企业、外贸企业以及高外债企业面临的潜在风险形式和影响予以研判,以帮助投资人防范和化解海外投资风险。The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the exposure of global sovereign debt risk.A wave of downward of sovereign credit rating triggered by the pandemic has not only pushed up the default risks of sovereign debt,but also transmitted credit risks of enterprises through fiscal,financial and exchange rate channels.This paper examines financial crises in Argentina,Indonesia and Russia as well as the global Covid-19 pandemic and demonstrates how sovereign credit risk can be spread from some developing countries to credit risk of non-financial enterprises.It also examines the potential risk to state-owned enterprises,major public procurement contractors,resource and energy enterprises,foreign trade enterprises and enterprises with high foreign debtas part of an effort to help investors prevent and resolve overseas investment risks.

关 键 词：主权债务风险 风险传导 海外投资风险 

分 类 号：F811.5[经济管理—财政学] F279.1F831