房价上涨、家庭债务与城镇居民消费:贷款价值比的视角  

Rising Housing Price,Household Debt and Urban Household Consumption Perspective from LTV

作　　者：周利 易行健 ZHOU Li;YI Xing-jian(Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,School of Finance,Guangzhou 510006,China;Institute of Fortune Management Research,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院,广东广州510006 [2]广州华南财富管理中心研究基地,广东广州510006

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2020年第11期80-89,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社科基金资助重大项目(15ZDA013);教育部课题(18YJC790238)。

摘　　要：家庭借贷是缓解居民支大于收、平缓消费的重要手段,而贷款价值比的约束迫使家庭的债务规模必须控制在一定的范围之内;与此同时,持续上涨的房价不断逼近贷款价值比约束,最终表现为消费的大幅度波动。基于家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观数据,本文细致考察了房价上涨、家庭债务对城镇居民消费的影响。结果表明:(1)家庭债务对城镇居民消费的杠杆显著,即使将样本细分为有房家庭与无房家庭,杠杆效应依然显著;(2)持续上涨的房价将显著促进有房家庭的消费,且这正向作用将被贷款价值比放大;而上涨的房价将抑制无房家庭的消费。(3)无论是有房家庭还是无房家庭,贷款价值比对居民消费的作用存在明显的门槛效应,即只有当贷款价值比增大到一定水平时,其对居民消费的影响将由促进转为抑制。(4)房价上涨对城镇居民消费的作用在不同群体间差异明显,受教育程度高的城镇家庭,或者持有二套房以上的家庭,房价上涨对城镇居民消费的促进效应更强。This paper explores the impact of rising house prices and household debt on consumption from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.Theoretically we construct a model respectively considering the impact of rising house prices,Loan to Value(LTV)on household consumption for house owners and renters.Empirical results of micro data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)of 2010,2010 and 2014 show that:(1)The leverage effect of household debt on consumption is remarkable,and the leverage effect is still significant even after controlling the economic development of different provinces and different items of consumption;(2)For house owners,rising house prices will significantly promote the consumption,and its positive wealth effect on household consumption is enhanced after including household debts in the model;While for renters or potential houses buyers,rising housing prices will hamper the consumption.(3)Whatever for house owners or homeless households,the effect of loan-to-value ratio on household consumption has obvious threshold effect,that is,only when the loan-to-value ratio increases to a certain level,its influence on household consumption will change from promotion to inhibition.(4)The effect of rising housing prices on household consumption is significantly different among diverse groups.For urban households with higher education degree or those with more than two houses,the effect of rising housing price on the consumption is stronger.However,it should be noted that although household debt can fill the gap between expenditure and income,when the amount of household debt level is over large,rigid repayment of larger debt will crowd out household consumption.At that time,the accumulation of household debt will hinder the household consumption.

关 键 词：房价上涨 家庭债务 贷款价值比 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]