中国是否拥有原油的国际定价权?——基于油价间独立性与传导性视角  

Does China Have the International Pricing Power for Crude Oil?——Based on a Perspective of Independence and Conductivity Between Oil Prices

作　　者：田洪志[1,2] 姚峰 李慧 TIAN Hong-zhi;YAO Feng;LI Hui(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;China Western Economic Development Research Institute,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;Faculty of Economics,Kagawa University,Takamatsu 7608523,Japan)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [2]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究院,陕西西安710127 [3]香川大学经济学部,日本高松7608523

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2020年第11期90-99,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社科基金孵化项目(20XNFH011);日本文部科学省科研基金资助基盤研究(C)(19K01583)。

摘　　要：在目前国际原油以期货市场定价的格局下,如何判别中国原油期货价格是否已经拥有了国际定价权是一个亟待解决的理论和现实问题。本文基于多变量单方向因果测度统计分析方法,聚焦原油期货市场定价的独立性与传导性,以上海国际能源交易中心的原油期货价格(INE)为例进行实证分析。研究发现:第一,INE在短、中期内未受到WTI、Brent等原油期货价格的因果影响,具有价格发现功能,但是尚不具备长期独立性;第二,在本文的样本区间与美元兑人民币汇率条件下,上海原油期货采用人民币计价可以增强其对WTI、Brent的影响力,同时减弱二者的影响力,彰显出人民币计价的双重定价优势;第三,WTI和Brent油价作为基准油价指标,INE作为非基准油价指标满足本文所创建的国际基准油价之间应长期相互独立、基准油价对非基准油价应具有传导性的研判标准,反映了该标准的科学性。Within the current international crude oil futures market pricing pattern,how to determine whether China’s crude oil futures prices have international pricing power is both an urgent theoretical and practical problem.Based on a statistical analysis using the multivariate one-way effect causal measure method,this paper focuses on the independence and conductivity of crude oil futures market pricing,using the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center crude oil futures price(INE)as an empirical basis.The results are threefold.First,in the short and medium term,INE is not affected by WTI,Brent crude oil futures prices,it also has a price discovery function,but does not yet have long-term independence.Second,under the condition of the sample interval of this paper and the exchange rate between US dollar and RMB,the use of RMB pricing in Shanghai crude oil futures can enhance its influence on WTI and Brent,and a the same time reduce their influence,thus highlighting the dual pricing advantage of RMB pricing.Third,WTI and Brent oil prices being benchmark oil price indicators and INE being a non-benchmark oil price indicator validates the paper’s new criteria to determine the long-term independence between benchmark indicators,as well as the conductivity of benchmark oil prices on non-benchmark oil prices,thus reflecting the rationality of this criteria.

关 键 词：单方向因果测度 原油期货价格 独立性 传导性 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]