工资生产率背离与实际汇率——中美巴萨效应再检验  

Wage Productivity Deviations and the Real Exchange Rate:Retesting the Balassa-Samuelson Effect

作　　者：丁剑平 杨洁[2] 张冲 DING Jianping;YANG Jie;ZHANG Chong(Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics;School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海国际金融与经济研究院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第10期1-18,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科重大项目《人民币加入SDR、一揽子货币定值与中国宏观经济的一般均衡研究》(项目编号:16ZDA031)的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过放松巴萨效应(B-S效应)两大假设,构建了包含贸易品一价定律偏离和劳动力市场分割的开放经济局部均衡模型对人民币实际汇率进行分解,并使用中美服务业细分行业与制造业2004Q1-2016Q4季度数据,分组对人民币实际汇率的B-S效应及其传导渠道进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)中美之间B-S效应成立,但相对相对生产率通过影响相对相对工资从而影响物价水平,并最终影响实际汇率这一传导渠道不成立;(2)除传统B-S效应传导渠道外,我们发现相对相对生产率通过影响GDP进而影响实际汇率这一传导渠道;(3)产业结构失衡在一定程度上导致中国相对生产率和相对工资背离,使得相对相对工资的增加对人民币实际汇率产生负向(升值)作用。这说明,要时刻关注经济基本面,通过供给侧结构性改革提高劳动生产率,实现高端制造业和服务业的协调发展。After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system,the metal standard declined in favor of the fiduciary standard and currency crises sometimes occurred.In the international context,exchange rate pricing and maintaining exchange rate stability have always been topics of concern for academics,governments and central banks.Although the equilibrium exchange rate theory based on purchasing power parity plays an important role in exchange rate pricing,the real exchange rate is often not equal to one;the Balassa-Samuelson(B-S)effect provides a reasonable explanation for this.The B-S effect provides a new research perspective for real exchange rate changes.However,the model's strong assumptions are unlikely to be satisfied in developing countries,implying that relaxing these assumptions is one of the most important approaches of study in the B-S effect literature.Most studies only relax one of the assumptions of the B-S model.China does not conform to the status quo because of its deviation from the Law of One Price and the segmentation in its labor market.In this paper,we allow for both of these and construct an open economy partial equilibrium model to decompose the real exchange rate of the RMB.Our model includes the deviation from the Law of One Price in tradables and the segmentation in the labor market.We use data for service industry sub-sectors and manufacturing firms in China and the U.S.from 2004Q1 to 2016Q4 to conduct a grouped empirical analysis of the B-S effect for the real exchange rate of the RMB and its transmission channels.Our theoretical and empirical results suggest that(1)the B-S effect between China and the United States exists but the transmission channel of relative productivity affecting the price level by affecting relative wages,ultimately affecting the real exchange rate,is not signi ficant.(2)In addition to the traditional B-S effect transmission channel,we find that relative productivity affects the real exchange rate by affecting GDP,implying that productivity affects the real exchange rate b

关 键 词：巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应(B-S效应) 一价定律偏离 实际汇率 工资 劳动生产率 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]