数量规则还是利率规则?——我国转型时期量价混合型货币规则的理论基础  

Quantity Rule or Price Rule:Theoretical Foundation of the Admixed Monetary Rule in China's Transition Period

作　　者：李宏瑾[1] 苏乃芳 LI Hongjin;SU Naifang(Research Bureau,the People's Bank of China;Research Institute,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局,北京100800 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所,北京100800

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第10期38-54,共17页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文对我国货币政策转型时期兼顾数量和价格的货币政策调控实践进行了深入的分析。在货币数量论和货币效用模型的基础上,从理论上阐明了货币数量规则与利率价格规则的等价关系,并构建了符合中国货币政策实践的数量与价格混合型货币政策规则。这对于更好地理解我国货币政策转型时期的量价混合型货币政策操作具有重要的理论和现实意义。相关推论表明,正是由于数量和价格混合型货币规则,在利率低于均衡水平的情形下,中国的货币增速并未引发恶性通胀;修正的物价稳定泰勒原理表明,利率调整幅度小于通胀变化仍能够实现物价稳定。对中国的经验分析支持了理论和推论结果。在利率市场化基本完成和流动性格局逆转的当下,货币政策价格调控方式转型的必要性和迫切性日益上升,转型的条件日趋成熟。In recent years,the Chinese economy has been shifting from rapid growth to high-quality development.In this situation,monetary policy should adopt aggregated and structural regulations to keep liquidity at an adequate level and to help the real economy.With the rapid development of Chinese financial innovation and financial disintermediation,the effects of quantity regulation(which controls the money supply as the intermediate goal)are decreasing.In particular,Chinese interest rate marketization has entered a new stage,where the core feature is a mechanism for the formation and control of market-oriented interest rates.Monetary policy should now be transformed from quantity-based regulation to price-based regulation.The regulation of quantity and price are interactive processes.It is necessary to maintain the balance between quantity and price.In the transformation of China's monetary policy,the combination of quantity and price regulation has played a vital role in stabilizing economic growth and inflation.A lot of studies have shown that purely quantity-regulating rules such as the McCallum rule,or purely interest rate-regulating rules such as the Taylor rule cannot fully explain China's monetary policy.Therefore,it is important to study the relationship between monetary rules regarding both quantity and price,and to explore a quantity-price admixed monetary policy.Such an admixed rule policy can help us to comprehensively understand Chinese monetary policy regulation during transformation.In this study,we construct our model based on the Fisher equation and the money-in-the-utility model.We analyze the relationship between the monetary quantity rule and the price rule,and construct a quantity-price admixed monetary policy rule.It is of great theoretical and practical importance for interpreting the regulation of China's monetary policy.On one hand,the admixed monetary policy rule verifies the equivalence of the quantity rule and the price rule.When output deviates from potential output,or inflation deviates fr

关 键 词：货币数量规则 货币数量目标制 泰勒规则 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]