贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择  

Trade Friction,Macroeconomic Fluctuations,and the Choice of Economic Openness

作　　者：肖祖沔 彭红枫 向丽锦 XIAO Zumian;PENG Hongfeng;XIANG Lijin(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250002

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第10期74-91,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人民币加入SDR、一篮子货币定值与中国宏观经济的均衡研究”(项目编号:16ZDA032);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“人民币国际化进程中资本账户开放及其风险防范研究”(项目编号:16YJA790040);“泰山学者”专项工程经费(ts201712059);山东财经大学优势学科人才团队孵化计划的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。Trade friction between China and the United States(US)broke out in early 2018.We can foresee that with the gradual improvement of China's international economic status,Sino-US economic and trade relations will continue to be affected by various forms of friction and conflict.Moreover,it is likely that such frictions and conflicts will exist cyclically in the long run,which will eventually have significant and profound impacts on China's macro-economy.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the following questions in depth:how will trade frictions affect China's macro-economy?To what extent can China open up its economy?According to international trade theory,a country can impose tariffs to improve its terms of trade and promote net export growth.Therefore,tariff measures are often used as the most direct policy tool when trade frictions occur between two countries.This article introduces tariff shocks,foreign exchange risk premiums,and monetary policy cost channels into a two-country open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic fluctuations caused by trade frictions and analyze relevant policy options for the economic opening of markets.This article decomposes the real exchange rate fluctuations caused by tariff shocks into“direct effects”and“indirect effects”and clarifies the transmission channels and theoretical mechanisms through which tariff shocks affect the terms of trade and the real exchange rate.First,the log-linearization of the real exchange rate equation shows that an increase in tariffs directly triggers the devaluation of the domestic currency.However,these exchange rate changes cannot fully offset the price distortion caused by tariff shocks.Second,after expressing the terms of trade as an equation of the relative output levels of the two countries,tariffs,and foreign exchange risk premiums,we find that tariff shocks deteriorate the terms of trade,which triggers the appreciation of the domestic currency.Therefore,tariff shocks affect the real exchange ra

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 经济波动 风险溢价 资本管制 贸易开放度 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济] F124