基于可变模糊集理论的跨流域调水工程水资源优化调度  

Optimal water resources dispatching of inter-basin water diversion project based on variable fuzzy set theory

作　　者：王兴菊[1] 孙杰豪 赵然杭[1] 王好芳[1] 马吉刚 赵洪丽 顾士升 赵立斌 WANG Xingju;SUN Jiehao;ZHAO Ranhang;WANG Haofang;MA Jigang;ZHAO Hongli;GU Shisheng;ZHAO Libin(School of Civil Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061 China;Water diversion project operation and maintenance center of Shandong Province,Jinan 250100,China;Flood control and drought relief material reserve center of Shandong Province,Jinan 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学土建与水利学院,济南250061 [2]山东省调水工程运行维护中心,济南250100 [3]山东省防汛抗旱物资储备中心,济南250000

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2020年第6期85-92,100,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAB07B02);山东省水利科研与技术推广项目(SDSLKY201222,SDSLKY201815,SDSLKY201807)。

摘　　要：为实现水资源的高效利用,对胶东调水工程进行水资源优化调度研究。基于受水区潍坊、青岛、烟台、威海等4市的实际配水量与社会经济指标分析,利用可变模糊集理论,建立地市外调水量可变模糊优选模型进行优化调配系数计算,优化调配4市外调水量,并对优化后的外调水量与区域社会经济发展进行耦合协调度计算。以调水效率最高为原则,以4市缺水总量最小建立目标函数,利用Lingo软件编程求解,分别对平水年、枯水年、特枯年进行水资源优化调度。把基于调配水量调度与规划指标调度的结果进行对比分析。结果表明:2种调度结果均满足各分水口的最小需水要求;外调水量的优化调配提高了胶东4市水资源与社会经济发展的耦合协调度,调配水量调度后,青岛市缺水率明显下降,其他地市缺水率降幅则较小。The optimization of water resources scheduling in the Jiaodong water transfer project is studied to achieve the efficient utilization of water resources.Based on the analysis of the actual water allocation and socio-economic indicators of Weifang,Qingdao,Yantai,and Weihai,the variable fuzzy set theory is used to establish a variable fuzzy optimization model of external water transfer volume to calculate the optimal allocation coefficient.The allocation of external water transfer volume is optimized from the four cities and the coupling coordination degree between the optimized external water transfer volume and regional socio-economic development is calculated.An objective function is established and the solution is programmed by Lingo software based on the principle of the highest water transfer efficiency and the minimum total water deficit in the four cities.The optimal water resources regulation is carried out in the median water year,low water year,and the extremely low water year,respectively.The results of optimal water resources regulation and planning indicator regulation are compared and analyzed.The results show that:the two scheduling results meet the minimum water demand of each water-diversion;the optimal allocation of external water transfer volume increases the coupling coordination degree between water resources and socio-economic development in the four cities of Jiaodong,after the optimal water resources regulation,the water-deficient ratio is significantly decreased in Qingdao,while the water-deficient ratio in other cities decreases slightly.

关 键 词：可变模糊集理论 耦合协调度 跨流域调水工程 优化调度 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]