农产品关税管制的贸易效应研究--以大豆为例  

Research on the trade effect of agricultural products tariff control:taking soybean as an example

作　　者：姜辉 吴玲玲 JIANG Hui;WU Ling-ling(School of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310018)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《价格月刊》2020年第12期29-35,共7页

基　　金：国家社科项目“美国出口管制与我国企业海外经营的合规风险研究”(编号:19BGJ029)。

摘　　要：中国针对美国大豆加征进口关税是应对贸易摩擦的重要举措。以2018年加征大豆关税为时间节点,借助贸易地理集中度指数,采用对比研究方法,剖析关税管制政策对大豆贸易地理的影响。研究发现:关税管制政策产生了显著的贸易转移效应,美国对中国的大豆出口骤减且贸易条件恶化,巴西大豆在中国的市场份额快速提升。由于进口弹性较大,关税管制政策对中国国内的影响较小,关税的大部分由美国出口商承担。尽管如此,关税管制政策提升了中国大豆进口的地理集中度,尤其是对巴西的大豆进口依赖较高。为了有效地维护粮食安全,中国应该在提升农产品进口地理分散度的同时,扩大农产品的自给自足水平。It is an important measure for China to impose import tariff on American soybean to deal with trade friction.Based on the increase in soybean tariffs in 2018,this paper used comparative research method and trade geographic concentration index to analyze the impact of tariff control policies on soybean trade geography.It is found that the tariff control policy has a significant trade diversion effect,the American soybean exported to China plummeted and the terms of trade deteriorated,and the market share of Brazilian soybeans in China increased rapidly.Due to the great import flexibility,tariff control policies have little impact on China,s domestic market,and the tariff is mostly borne by American exporters.Meanwhile,the tariff control policy increased the geographic concentration of China,s soybean imports,especially leaded to the high dependence on Brazil,s soybean.In order to effectively maintain food security,China should increase the geographic dispersion of agricultural products imports while expanding the level of self-sufficiency in agricultural products.

关 键 词：农产品 关税管制 贸易转移 效应 贸易创造效应 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易]