我国卫生总费用与健康产出的关系研究: 基于向量误差修正模型的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of The Relationship between Total Health Expenditure and Health Outcomes in China Based on Vector Error Correction Model

作　　者：赵同领 庞军[1] 赵劲民[2] Zhao Tongling(The Fist Afiliated Hospital of Cuangxi University of Chinese Medieine,Nanning,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]广西中医药大学第一附属医院,广西南宁530023 [2]广西医科大学

出　　处：《中国卫生事业管理》2020年第12期906-909,926,共5页Chinese Health Service Management

基　　金：2018年广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目“西部农村因病致贫家庭成员生活质量研究”(编号:2018KY0094)。

摘　　要：目的:考察我国卫生总费用与健康产出的关系。方法:选取1995-2017年我国卫生总费用和婴儿死亡率的时间序列数据,进行向量误差修正模型分析。结果;我国卫生总费用和婴儿死亡率之间存在长期的均衡关系,婴儿死亡率对卫生总费用的弹性系数为-0.71;卫生总费用对婴儿死亡率具有显著Granger的影响;当卫生总费受到一个正向冲击后,对婴儿死亡率具有负向影响,在第6年达到最大,随后逐渐减少,并保持在较稳定水平。结论:我国卫生总费用对健康产出有显著的改善作用;这种作用具有滞后性和长期持续效应;适当提高我国卫生筹资水平,促进健康水平提升。Objective To investigate the relationship between total health expenditure(THE) and health outcomes in China. Methods Data of China’ THE and infant mortality rate(IMT) from 1995 to 2017 was analyzed with the vector error correction model. Results There has equilibrium relationship between THE and IMT in China. The elasticity coefficient of IMT to THE was-0.71. THE had a significant Granger influence on IMT. After a positive impact, THE showed negative influence on IMT, which reached its maximum at the sixth year, then gradually decreased, and kept at a stable level. Conclusion THE has a significant effect of improving the health output, which has a lag and long-term sustained effect. It is suggested to appropriately improve health financing to promote the health in China.

关 键 词：婴儿死亡率 卫生总费用 协整分析 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]