产业补贴退坡的政策效果及启示——以中国新能源汽车为例  

The Effect of the Subsidy Reduction Policy and its Implication--the Case of China’s Electric Vehicles

作　　者：高玥[1] GAO Yue(Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第12期28-32,46,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L18BJY022)。

摘　　要：以中国新能源汽车为例,采用事件研究方法对产业补贴退坡的政策效果进行研究。结果发现,补贴退坡政策出台对新能源汽车整车制造公司股票收益率总体上产生显著正效应,而补贴退坡的提前实施则会产生负效应,并且这种负效应对于锂电池生产企业和补贴较高的客车制造公司更为显著。得出研究启示:以平缓方式逐步提高获取补贴的门槛技术标准、降低补贴力度的补贴退坡政策较为合理,能够增加企业研发动力并降低企业对补贴的依赖;然而,补贴退坡政策的提前实施会降低政策的确定性和预期收益,对政策客体和相关上游产业均产生不利影响;此外,补贴退坡提前会对补贴依赖度更高的产品或品种产生更强的负面影响。Using an event study method and taking electric vehicle(EV)sector as a case,this paper evaluates the impact of subsidy reduction policies.The results show that the announcement of subsidy reduction policy generally has a positive effect on the stock returns of EV producers,while the early implementation of such policy has a negative effect on vehicle companies,which is more significant for lithium battery producers and bus manufacturers that get more subsidies.Results indicate that the gradual improvement of subsidy*technical standards can promote the R&D motive and reduce the subsidy dependence of enterprises.However,the early implementation of the subsidy policy reduces the policy certainty and expected returns,which has a negative effect on related industries and upstream enterprises.In addition,heavily subsidized product categories are affected much more than the other groups if the subsidy reduction policies take effect ahead of schedule.

关 键 词：产业政策 补贴退坡 新能源汽车产业 政策效果 事件研究 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]