供需视角下水-能源-粮食系统风险的驱动机理与政策仿真——面向东北三省的系统动力学分析  

Driving Mechanism and Policy Simulation of Water-Energy-Food Risks from the Perspective of Supply and Demand——A Case Study of Northeast China for System Dynamics Analysis

作　　者：刘凌燕 王慧敏 刘钢[2,3] 孙冬营[4] 方舟[2] LIU Ling-yan;WANG Hui-min;LIU Gang;SUN Dong-ying;FANG Zhou(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydrulic Enginering,Hohai Unicersity,Nanjing 210024;Institute of Management Science,Hohai Unicersity,Nanjing 210024;Cooprutive Innwrution Cener for Coastal Derelopment&Proection,Hohai Unicersity,Nanjing 210024;Managenent School,Jiangsu University.Zhenjiang 212013)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210024 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,南京210024 [3]河海大学沿海开发与保护协同创新中心,南京210024 [4]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第12期52-60,共9页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51861125101、71704068);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404600)。

摘　　要：基于水-能源-粮食系统风险(WEF-R)概念,利用PSR方法构建WEF-R系统分析框架,并用系统动力学方法从资源供需视角分析WEF-R因果关系,构建其系统动力学模型组。以东北三省为例分析其WEF-R演化历程及驱动机理,并结合两项产业政策开展政策仿真研究。结果表明:(1)2005~2017年,东北三省WEF-R呈波动上升趋势,2009年后WEF-R增速逐步加快;(2)2005~2017年,相比能源与粮食风险,水资源供需风险对东北三省WEF-R的胁迫作用最为显著;(3)实施大豆振兴计划和发展生物质能均可降低WEF-R,但前者长期实施有可能诱发水资源供需风险,后者长期实施未见对单资源风险产生显著影响;双政策同时实施将增大WEF-R的不确定性。Based on the concept of water-energy-food system risk(WEF-R), this paper uses PSR method to construct the WEF-R system analysis framework and uses system dynamics method to analyze the WEF-R causality from the perspective of resource supply and demand, then constructs the system dynamics model group. Taking three provinces of Northeast China as an example, it analyzes the evolution process and driving mechanism of WEF-R, and carries out policy simulation research in combination with two industrial policies. The results show that: first,from 2005 to 2017, the WEF-R of three provinces of Northeast China shows a fluctuating upward trend, and the growth rate of WEF-R gradually accelerates after 2009;Secondly,from 2005 to 2017, compared with the energy and food risks, the stress effect of water risk for three provinces of Northeast China is most significant;thirdly, the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan and the development of biomass energy can reduce WEF-R;but from the long-term, the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan may induce the water risk, while the implementation of the latter does not have a significant impact on the single resource risk;finally, the simultaneous implementation of dual policies increases the uncertainty of WEF-R.

关 键 词：水-能源-粮食系统风险 系统动力学 政策仿真 东北三省 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]