中国山洪水文模型研制与应用:以安徽省中小流域为例  

Development and Application of China Flash Flood Hydrological Model:Case Study in Small and Medium-sized Catchments of Anhui Province

作　　者：翟晓燕[1] 郭良[1] 刘荣华[1] 张永勇[2] 刘昌军[1] ZHAI Xiaoyan;GUO Liang;LIU Ronghua;ZHANG Yongyong;LIU Changjun(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2020年第5期1018-1036,共19页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41807171);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400902,2019YFC1510603);全国山洪灾害防治(中央本级)项目(JZ0145B2017)。

摘　　要：中小流域暴雨洪水模拟与预报是我国防洪减灾最重要的基础之一.针对我国不同气候类型区流域产汇流特性,基于大规模分布式体系架构和精细化地形地貌数据研发了中国山洪水文模型(China Flash Flood hydrological model,CNFF),模型参数较少,大多可基于全国小流域基础数据集等确定,便于在全国范围推广使用,尤其适于资料缺乏的中小流域山洪模拟与预报.本文详细介绍了CNFF的原理和结构,并以山洪灾害频发的安徽省29个中小流域(面积:3.24~3410km^2)为研究区开展了应用研究,评估了该模型在中小流域洪水模拟的适用性.结果表明:CNFF模型具有较高的模拟精度和比较广泛的适用性,研究区643场雨洪过程模拟结果来看,率定期和验证期的平均径流深相对误差(RER)分别为8.90%和10.20%,平均洪峰流量相对误差(REQ)分别为7.80%和7.75%,平均峰现时间误差(TP)分别为1.71h和1.74h,平均Scaled Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(SNSE)分别为0.73和0.70;在中雨~特大暴雨等雨强等级下,TP和SNSE合格率分别由53%和89%增加至95%和100%,模拟效果提高显著;在大、中和小不同流域面积等级下,REQ、TP和NSE合格率分别由74%、88%和93%增加至83%、92%和96%,RER合格率由85%减少至78%.The simulation and forecasting of flash floods in small and medium-sized catchments is one of the most significant basis to prevent and mitigate flood disasters in China.In consideration of rainfall-flood attributes in various catchments,China Flash Flood hydrological model(CNFF)was developed based on a large scale distributed model structure and high resolution topographic data.CNFF is characterized with few parameters and most of them can be determined on the basis of national catchment basic database,which is especially suitable for flash flood simulation and forecasting in small and medium-sized catchments in ungauged regions across China.The model theory and model structure were introduced,and CNFF was established in Anhui province which is frequently hit by flash flood disasters,to simulate flood events in 29 catchments(drainage area:3.24~3410km^2).The results show that CNFF has high simulation accuracy and wide applicability for simulating the rainfall and runoff processes in study area.The average RER,REQ,TP and SNSE are 8.90%and 10.20%,7.80%and 7.75%,1.71h and 1.74h,and 0.73 and 0.70,respectively in calibration and validation periods.With rainfall intensities ranging from moderate to extraordinary heavy storm grades,the satisfied ratios for TP and SNSE increase from 53%and 89%to 95%and 100%,respectively.With drainage areas ranging from large to small grades,the satisfied ratios for REQ,TP and SNSE increase from 74%,88%and 93%to 83%,92%and 96%,respectively,while that for RER decreases from 85%to 78%.

关 键 词：中国山洪水文模型 暴雨山洪 雨强 中小流域 安徽省 适用性评估 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]