降雨及引江济太调度对太湖水位变化的影响分析  

Analysis on the Impacts of Rainfall and Yangtze-Taihu Water Diversion on the Water Level Variation in Taihu Lake

作　　者：金科 王雪姣 陈甜 JIN Ke;WANG Xuejiao;CHEN Tian(Bureau of Hydrology(Information Center),Taihu Basin Authority,Shanghai 200434,China;Shanghai Lantai Information Consulting Co.Ltd.,Shanghai 200434,China)

机构地区：[1]太湖流域管理局水文局(信息中心),上海200434 [2]上海蓝泰信息咨询有限公司,上海200434

出　　处：《水文》2020年第6期63-67,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“大数据驱动的流域智能管理与决策关键技术”(2018YFC0407900)。

摘　　要：太湖流域位于长江三角洲核心区域,地势平坦,易受梅雨台风影响导致洪涝灾害。2002年太湖流域开始实施引江济太水资源调度,"以丰补枯",有效补充了流域水资源量。采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法分析了自1986年以来的太湖流域降雨和太湖水位变化趋势,采用多元线性回归分析法研究了太湖水位月变化量的主要影响因子,并通过历年引江济太调度典型案例证明了引江济太水资源调度的时机和作用。结果表明:(1)太湖流域上游地区降雨量呈增加趋势,太湖水位呈上升趋势,其趋势主要表现在非汛期,汛期并不显著。(2)太湖水位变化同时受上游地区降雨和水利工程调度等因素影响,其中降雨是主要影响因子。(3)引江济太实施后,太湖水位有时候会上升,但并非主要的影响因素。引江济太不会增加太湖流域防洪风险。(4)引江济太是在太湖流域降雨偏少或者有改善水环境需求的时候开展的,对增加流域水资源量和改善流域水环境具有重要意义。The Taihu Lake basin is located in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta.The terrain is flat and it is susceptible to floods caused by typhoons and plum rains.It began to implement water resources dispatching of Yangtze-Taihu Water Diversion from 2002,which effectively supplement the water resources of the river basin.This paper used the Mann-Kendall test method to analyze the trends of rainfall in the upstream of Taihu Lake and water level of Taihu Lake since 1986,and applied the multiple linear regression analysis method to study the main influencing factors of the monthly change of the water level.Plenty of times of the water diversion practices have also been analyzed by occasions and impacts on water level fluctuations.The results show that:(1)The increasing trends of rainfall and water level are significant in the Taihu Lake during the non-flood season;while they increase gently in flood seasons.(2)The change of water level in the Taihu Lake is affected by both the rainfall in the upstream area and the operations of water conservancy projects,but rainfall is the main influencing factor.(3)Through the Yangtze-Taihu Water Diversion Project,the extent of the Taihu Lake water level rise has not increased the risk of flood control in the Taihu Lake Basin,and the supply of water resources can be increased without increasing the risk of flood control.(4)The Yangtze-Taihu Water Diversion is basically implemented when there is little rainfall,which can effectively raise the water level of the Taihu Lake or slow down the downward trend of the water level,which have great significance for maintaining the Taihu Lake water level and ensuring the water resources supply of the basin.

关 键 词：太湖 水位 降雨 引江济太 趋势分析 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]