中国财政体制识别及财政政策的产出稳定效应——基于周期调整的财政政策  

Fiscal System Identification and the Output Stabilization Effect of Fiscal Policy in China——Based on Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Policy

作　　者：张柏杨[1] Zhang Baiyang

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行成都分行,四川成都610041

出　　处：《西南金融》2020年第12期77-86,共10页Southwest Finance

摘　　要：本文把中国财政政策的变化分解为结构性变化和周期性变化两个维度,以结构性变化作为相机抉择财政政策的代理变量,周期性变化作为财政政策自动稳定器功能的代理变量,进而在此基础上对中国的财政体制进行了识别,并分别评估了不同财政体制下相机抉择的财政政策和自动稳定器功能对产出的影响。本文研究发现:中国的财政政策本身的变化和产出效应均主要由政府部门的主动财政行为决定,即相机抉择的财政政策,自动稳定器功能的影响不大;中国的财政体制并不稳定,而是在李嘉图制度和非李嘉图制度之间不断变化;财政政策的产出效应在不同的财政体制下表现出了明显的异质性特征,非李嘉图制度下财政政策的产出效应相对更强。This article decomposes the changes in China's fiscal policy into two dimensions including structur⁃al changes and cyclical changes.Structural changes are used as proxy variables for discretionary fiscal policy,and cyclical changes are used as proxy variables for the automatic stabilizer of fiscal policy.On this basis,China's fiscal system is identified,and the effects of discretionary fiscal policies and automatic stabilizer functions on output under different fiscal systems are evaluated.The research finds that:Changes and output effects of China's fiscal policy it⁃self are mainly determined by the proactive fiscal behavior of government departments,that is,discretionary fiscal policy,the automatic stabilizer function has little effect;China's fiscal system is not stable.It is constantly changing between the Ricardo system and the non-Ricardo system;the output effect of fiscal policy shows obvious heterogene⁃ity under different fiscal systems,and the output effect of fiscal policy under the non-Ricardo system is relatively stronger.

关 键 词：财政体制 财政政策 财政收支结构 自动稳定器 经济周期 周期调整 李嘉图制度 相机抉择 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学] F812