生育变迁:1949~2019年中国生育影响因素研究  

Study on the Transition of Fertility and Influences in 1949-2019

作　　者：刘卓 王学义 LIU Zhuo;WANG Xue-yi(Southwestern University Of Finance And Economics,Research Institute of Social Development,Chengdu Sichuan 611130,Chi-na)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学社会发展研究院,成都611130

出　　处：《西北人口》2021年第1期107-116,共10页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“中国第二次人口转变深化特征与生育行为研究”(批准号JBK2007188)。

摘　　要：文章将1949年以来的中国生育水平变动划分为自主生育、计划生育政策干预、完善生育政策等三个阶段,分别探寻不同阶段的生育变化规律及呈现出的主要特点,分析不同阶段影响生育水平的主导及相关因素;认为中国人口生育水平变动呈现阶段性特点,多重因素影响下生育水平下降已成为人口发展的基本态势,影响生育水平变动的生育政策因素正在逐渐减弱,生育养育成本和文化观念已经成为影响生育水平的重要因素。同时,由于我国东、中、西部地区经济社会发展存在差异性,受这些因素的影响,不同地区生育水平也存在一定差异性。从中国生育水平变迁及发展趋势来看,即使是完善公共服务政策,短期内也难以有效提高生育水平,人口发展中出现低生育率以及人口负增长现象难以避免;未来应充分发挥家庭在生育行为中的决定性作用,更好地发挥政府的引导作用,科学研判未来生育水平变动趋势,积极营造良好的生育环境。The article classifies the transition in China’s fertility level since 1949 into three stages,namely voluntary fertility,intervention in family planning policy,and perfection of fertility policy,explores the patterns and main fea⁃tures of fertility changes in different stages,and analyzes the leading and related factors influencing fertility levels in different stages.As the basic trend of population development,the factors of fertility policy that influence changes in fer⁃tility levels are gradually weakening,and the cost of childbirth and upbringing and cultural attitudes have become im⁃portant factors in influencing fertility levels.At the same time,due to the differences in economic and social develop⁃ment in the eastern,central and western regions of China,there are certain differences in fertility levels in different re⁃gions due to the influence of these factors.Judging from the demographic development trend of China’s changing fertili⁃ty levels,it is difficult to effectively raise fertility levels in the short term even if public service policies are improved,and it is difficult to avoid low fertility rates and negative population growth in the course of population development.In the future,we should give full play to the decisive role of the family in reproductive behaviour,give better play to the Government’s guiding role,scientifically study future trends in fertility levels,and actively create a favourable repro⁃ductive environment.

关 键 词：生育变迁 因素分析 人口发展 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]