基于Probit模型的干旱地区智慧水利建设与农村多元主体参与意愿实证分析  

Empirical Analysis Based on the Probit Model on the Smart Water Conservancy Construction and the Participation Willingness of Rural Social Subjects in Arid Areas

作　　者：张宁[1] 左丽 陈彤[2] 张澜 董宏纪[3] ZHANG Ning;ZUO Li;CHEN Tong;ZHANG Lan;DONG Hongji(School of Management,Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018,China;Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Urumqi 830091,China;Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Hangzhou, 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,杭州310018 [2]新疆农业科学院,乌鲁木齐830091 [3]浙江水利水电学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2020年第12期2340-2350,共11页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金“数字经济背景下‘智慧治水’市场协同治理机制、模式与发展路径”(20BGL188);国家自然科学基金重点项目“我国西部农业市场培育与开放研究”(71933005);教育部人文社科规划项目“智慧治水的市场嵌入及其利益主体共建机制研究”(18YJA790107);浙江省自然科学基金项目“智慧水务建设及其社会参与式管理模式研究”(LY18G030018);浙江省社科规划项目“智慧治水市场嵌入及其利益主体共同参与机制研究”(18NDJC044YB)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究干旱地区智慧水利建设中的多元社会主体意愿及其影响因素。【方法】以新疆南疆三地州为例,采用问卷与实地调查收集数据,将管理部门、农村社区、农民用水组织、个体农户四大农村社会多元主体整理分类,运用Probit非线性概率模型,对干旱地区社会多元主体共同参与农村水利智能化、智慧化管理与建设的意愿及其影响因素进行实证分析。【结果】在合理辨别多元主体类别的前提下,共回收462份有效问卷,智慧水利建设支持及参与者共299人,比例达64.72%。四类不同多元主体参与比例也均超过了60%,其中农村社区参与的占比最大,达到68.33%,管理部门愿意参与比例仅为61.06%,个体农户与农民用水组织占比相当,分别为64.39%与64.95%。【结论】文化程度、社会资本积累、社会权威认可度、社区经济情况、网络信息平台对管理部门智慧水利参与意愿具有正向影响。文化程度、社会资本积累、项目熟悉度、社区紧密度、信息共享程度对农村社区智慧水利参与意愿具有正向影响。年龄、社会资本积累、社会权威认可度、社区紧密度、信息共享程度对农民用水组织智慧水利参与意愿具有正向影响。文化程度、家庭年收入、项目熟悉度、社区紧密度、信息共享程度对个体农户智慧水利参与意愿具有正向影响。【Objective】To explore the factors influencing the willingness of multiple subjects to participate in smart water conservancy in three prefectural regions of Southern Xinjiang.【Method】Data were collected through questionnaire survey,symposium and other methods,and the data of four multiple subjects,namely administration department,rural community,water organizations and individual farmers,were sorted and classified.Probit model was used to analyze the factors influencing the willingness of multiple subjects to participate in smart water conservancy.【Result】On the premise of reasonably identifying multiple subjects categories,a total of 462 valid questionnaires were recovered,among which 299 people,accounting for 64.72%,were willing to participate in the construction of smart water conservancy.Among them,the participation proportion of four types of multiple subjects all exceeded 60%,and the participation willingness of rural communities accounted for the largest proportion,reaching 68.33%.The proportion of administration department willing to participate was 61.06%,and the proportion of individual farmers and farmers'water organizations were the same,64.39%and 64.95%respectively.【Conclusion】Education level,social capital accumulation,the authority of social recognition,community economic situation and network information platform have a positive impact on the willingness of administrotion departments to participate in the construction of smart water conservancy.Education level,social capital accumulation,project familiarity,community economic situation,network information platform have a positive impact on the willingness of rural communities to participate in the construction of smart water conservancy.Age,social capital accumulation,the authority of social recognition,community closeness,information sharing degree have a positive impact on the willingness of farmers'water organization to participate in the construction of smart water conservancy.Annual family income,the authority of social recogn

关 键 词：干旱地区 智慧水利 市场嵌入 多元主体 参与意愿 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F205[经济管理—国民经济]