中国农业经济增长绩效、来源与演化  

Level,Source and Evolution of China’s Agricultural Economic Growth Performance

作　　者：匡远凤[1] 彭代彦[2] Kuang Yuanfeng;Peng Daiyan(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2020年第12期45-65,共21页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：研究目标:探究中国1979年以来全国和分地区农业经济增长的绩效水平、来源因子及今后可能的演化态势,并探寻增长绩效变动背后的重要原因。研究方法:随机VRS前沿参数分解技术和核密度估计法。研究发现:我国的农业增长绩效表现出明显的时段和地区差异性,农民务农积极性的高低是影响绩效水平最为关键的因素;我国的农业曾经表现出由"三轮驱动"绩效增长的好局面,但近期来这种模式已显弱化,显现出一种农业领域先锋作用不足、前沿省份开拓和带动能力较为欠缺的状态,我国农业发展面临较大挑战。研究创新:结合参数SFA与广义Malmquist生产率指数,基于实际的VRS前沿面而不是虚拟的CRS前沿面对农业技术进步等农业TFP增长来源因子进行测算,既提高了测算的准确性,也扩展了因子的范围和内涵。研究价值:有助于更为清晰地认识我国农业发展的过往轨迹、当前和今后可能形势,探求农业发展的制约因素和动力源泉,为农业发展和乡村振兴建言献策。Research Objectives:This paper explores the performance level,source factors and possible evolution trend of China’s agricultural economic growth since 1979,and explores the important reasons behind the change of growth performance.Research Methods:Parameter decomposition technology based on stochastic VRS frontier,Nuclear density estimation.Research Findings:China’s agricultural growth performance shows obvious time and regional differences,and farmers’enthusiasm for farming is the most critical factor affecting the performance level.China’s agriculture once showed a good situation of"three-wheel drive"performance growth,but in recent years,this mode has been weakened,showing a state of insufficient pioneer role and lack of frontier provinces’development and driving capacity in the field of agriculture,and China’s agricultural development is facing a big challenge.Research Innovations:Combining SFA and generalized Malmquist productivity index,we can calculate the source factors of agricultural TFP growth based on the actual VRS frontier rather than the virtual CRS frontier,which not only improves the accuracy of the calculation,but also expands the scope and content of the source factors.Research Value:It is helpful to have a clearer understanding of the past track,current and future possible situation of China’s agricultural development,explore the constraints and power sources,and provide advice and suggestions for agricultural development and Rural Revitalization.

关 键 词：农业经济增长绩效 农业全要素生产率 随机VRS前沿 广义Malmquist指数 

分 类 号：F303[经济管理—产业经济]