共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下2020-2050年中国分产业产值时空变化  

Spatio-temporal changes of output value from the primary,secondary and tertiary industries for 2020-2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

作　　者：潘金玉 苏布达[2] 王艳君 景丞 翟建青[2] 姜彤 PAN Jin-Yu;SU Bu-Da;WANG Yan-Jun;JING Cheng;ZHAI Jian-Qing;JIANG Tong(Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京210044 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2020年第6期725-737,共13页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701);中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化影响综合评估”(CCSF 201810,CCSF 201924)。

摘　　要：根据IPCC共享社会经济路径(SSPs)全球框架,基于中国国内生产总值历史资料、人口普查数据及历年各省统计年鉴,对柯布-道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预估模型的劳动参与率、资本产出弹性、全要素生产率等参数进行本地化,预估分析2020—2050年中国(除港、澳、台外)31个省(区、市)第一、第二和第三产业产值变化。结果表明:(1)不同SSPs路径下,中国各省分产业产值的变化趋势有显著差异。第一、第二产业产值变化趋势相同,但第二产业产值远高于第一产业。第一、第二产业在SSP1、SSP2和SSP5路径下持续增加,在SSP3和SSP4路径下呈现先增后减的趋势。第三产业产值在5种路径下均呈持续上升趋势。(2)三产产值增速总体呈下降趋势,产业间增速及物质需求的变化导致第一、第二产业对国内生产总值的贡献逐渐减少,第三产业比重增加,产业结构逐渐优化。(3)不同的社会经济发展政策对中国分省分产业产值影响显著。2020—2050年,三产产值基本呈现东高西低的空间特点。与2010年相比,2050年三产产值均在东部经济区增加最多,第一、第二产业产值在东北经济区增加最少,而第三产业在西部经济区最少。2050年,中国各省第一产业产值对经济贡献普遍低于8%,第二产业在25%~30%,第三产业普遍高于60%。东部经济区第三产业产值对经济总量的贡献始终高于西部,产业结构更为合理。Based on the time series of the gross domestic product and the demographic census of China,and statistical yearbooks in 31 provinces(China mainland),the labor participation rate,capital output elasticity and total factor productivity were localized in order to build the Cobb-Douglas model under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)framework.The changes of national and provincial output value of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries were analyzed for the first half of the 21 st century.The results show that:(1)The output value of three industries in China will be different significantly under SSPs.The primary and secondary industries show the same trend,but output value of the latter will be higher than that of the former.And they will increase under SSP1,SSP2 and SSP5,while decline under SSP3 and SSP4.The tertiary industry will continuously grow under all SSPs.(2)The growth rate of output value of three industries will decrease.The differences of industrial growth rates and material and cultural need lead to the gradual decrease of contribution of the primary and the secondary industries to economy,while the increase of contribution of the tertiary industry.(3)Different social and economic development policies have significant impacts on the provincial output value of three industries.Spatially,the output value of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries is high in the east but low in the west in China in 2020-2050.By the mid-21 st century,increase in the output value in the eastern region will be the highest for three industries.The increase of the output value of the primary and secondary industries in the northeast region will be the lowest,while that of the tertiary industry in the western region will be the lowest.In 2050,contribution of the primary industry to provincial GDP will be less than 8%and that of the tertiary industry will be higher than 60%generally.Meanwhile,share of the secondary industry will be 25%-30%.The contribution of the output value of the tertiary industry to GDP in the

关 键 词：柯布-道格拉斯经济预估模型(Cobb-Douglas) 产业产值 共享社会经济路径(SSPs) 中国 分省 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]