“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素  

Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：宋周莺[1,2,3] 祝巧玲 SONG Zhouying;ZHU Qiaoling(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2020年第11期1785-1797,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41871120);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010102)。

摘　　要：中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现:①中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。②中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative,and"unimpeded trade"is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China.It is important to examine the spatio-temporal characteristics of international trade between China and Pakistan for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along CPEC.This study examined the spatio-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and Pakistan,and analyzed its influencing factors using a stochastic frontier gravity model.The findings of this research are as follows:First,the scale of China-Pakistan trade is small but growing fast;China has trade surplus that continues to increase,and Pakistan shows low status in the global trade network of China;in China-Pakistan trade,China mainly exports capital-intensive products such as machinery and electrical equipment,and imports textile raw materials,textile products and other primary products,and labor-intensive products.Second,significant spatial differences exist in the trade scale and commodity structure of provinces in China with Pakistan;notably,eastern coastal provinces in China have significant advantages in terms of trade scale with Pakistan,while western provinces,except Xinjiang,have limited trade with Pakistan.Third,most of China's provinces have undergone significant changes in the structure of trade commodities,among which provinces with diverse commodity structures,such as Xinjiang and Shandong,have relatively little change.Fourth,higher economic development level and larger market size of provinces in China significantly promote China-Pakistan trade;shipping distance shows negative impact on China-Pakistan trade;shared border provides good conditions for cross-border trade;the construction of railway and shipping ports has shown a significant promoting effect on trade.Fifth,great trade potential still exists between provinces in China and Pakistan,especially in Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Guangxi,and Shaanxi provinces a

关 键 词：“一带一路” 中巴贸易 空间格局 随机前沿引力模型 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F753.53[经济管理—产业经济]