Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade  

作　　者：Ning JIANG Congwen ZHU 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2021年第1期147-155,共9页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：This work was jointly sponsored by the National Key R&D Program(Grant No.2018YFC1505904);the National Science Natural Foundation of China(Grant No.41830969);the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(Grant Nos.2018Z006 and 2018Y003);the scientific development foundation of CAMS(2020KJ012)。

摘　　要：It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Niña events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian−western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.

关 键 词：monsoon onset SCSSM ENSO cold tongue La Niña seasonal forecast 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]