极值波高与历时联合分布的重现水平分析  

Return level analysis on joint distribution of extreme wave heights and durations

作　　者：陈子燊 位帅[3] CHEN Zishen;WEI Shuai(Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510520,China;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Reservoir and Hydropower Engineering Management Center of Zhongshan,Zhongshan,528400,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学新华学院,广东广州510520 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [3]中山市水库水电工程管理中心,广东中山528400

出　　处：《海洋通报》2020年第5期530-535,共6页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371498)。

摘　　要：使用美国北卡罗来纳州的FRF 1985—2016年的极值波高及其持续时间数据,采用最优的Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数和Kendall分布函数构建极值波高和相应历时不同组合的联合概率分布模式,分析各个组合的遭遇概率、“或”重现期、“且”重现期和Kendall重现期,以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合联合设计值。结果表明:Kendall重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率下的风险率;重现期分别为5年、10年、20年、50年、100年、200年推算的Kendall重现期设计值介于“或”重现期和“且”重现期设计值之间,小于相应的边缘分布设计值;基于Kendall重现期的极值波高及其持续时间不同重现期组合推算的结果可为海洋工程构筑物设计与风险管理提供新的选择与参考。Extreme wave heights and their duration data from 1985 to 2016 were used in Field of Research Facillity(FRF)from north Carolina,USA.The optimal Gumbel-Hougaard copula and Kendall distribution function were used to construct the joint probability distribution model of different combinations of extreme wave height and corresponding duration.The probability of encounter,the‘OR’return period,the‘AND’return period and Kendall return period of each combination were analyzed to calculate the joint design value of each combination by the method of maximum probability.The results show that the cumulative frequency corresponding to Kendall return period more accurately represents the risk rate under the specific design frequency.The design values of Kendall return period calculated with return periods of 5 years,10 years,20 years,50 years,100 years and 200 years are between‘OR’return period and‘AND’return period,and less than the corresponding marginal distribution design values.Based on the combination of extreme wave height in Kendall return period and its duration in different return periods,the results can provide new options for the design reference and risk management of marine engineering structures.

关 键 词：海洋工程构筑物风险评估 设计波高与相应历时 “或”重现期 “且”重现期 Kendall重现期 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]