中国原油进口来源国供应安全的定量评估  

Quantitative evaluation on supply security of the sources of crude oil imports for China

作　　者：祝孔超 牛叔文[2,3] 赵媛[1,4,5] 邱欣 ZHU Kong-chao;NIU Shu-wen;ZHAO Yuan;QIU Xin(School of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Key Laboratory ofWestern China's Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education),Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Jinling College,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210097,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000 [3]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [4]南京师范大学金陵女子学院,南京210097 [5]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2020年第11期2629-2644,共16页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费“一带一路”专项项目(17LZUJBWZX013)。

摘　　要：原油供给安全在中国国家安全中占有重要地位,对其定量评估可为防范风险提供政策参考。采用事件数据分析法定量测度中国与21个主要原油进口来源国之间的双边关系,结果表明:中国与大多数原油贸易伙伴的关系处于中低水平,但近十多年总体保持上升趋势,原油进口存在一定的政治关系风险但趋于下降。选用资源、政治、经济、运输、军事5个方面的11个指标,通过组合赋权法确定指标权重,运用集对分析方法评估中国21个原油进口来源国的供应安全度,并识别主要障碍因子。结果表明:21国供应安全度存在较大差异。部分中东国家、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦供应安全度较高,多数非洲国家和亚太国家供应安全度较低。供应国的原油资源状况、运输风险、政治风险是制约多数国家供应安全的主要障碍因素。为防范风险,中国需坚持开展多边"能源外交",扩大战略石油储备等多方面施策方针。The security of crude oil supply plays an important role in China’s national security,so quantitative assessment for it can provide some policy references for risk prevention. The event data analysis model was employed to quantitatively measure the bilateral relations between China and 21 major crude oil suppliers. The results show that the relations between China and most of its crude oil trading partners are at medium and low levels, but the overall trend has been rising in recent more than ten years, which indicates that crude oil import has a certain risk of political relations but tends to decline. Eleven indexes from five aspects of resources, politics, economy, transportation and military were selected, and the weights of the indexes were determined by combination weighting method. The set pair analysis model was used to evaluate the supply security degree of 21 source countries of China’s crude oil import and then the main obstacle factors were identified. The results show that there are significant differences in the supply security degrees of the 21 countries. Some of the Middle East countries, Russia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan have a high degree of supply security, while most African and Asia-Pacific countries have a low degree of supply security. Crude oil resource status, transportation risks and political risks of the suppliers are the main obstacles to the supply security of most suppliers. To prevent risks, China should take policy measures such as pursuing multilateral energy diplomacy and expanding strategic petroleum reserves.

关 键 词：原油供给安全 双边关系 集对分析 障碍度 风险防范 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61