景电灌区农业灌溉需水量的影响因素分析与预测  

Analysis and forecast of influencing factors of agriculturalirrigation water requirement in Jingdian Irrigation District

作　　者：费良军[1] 陈南束 薛才 张景辉 高秋燕 李静思 李山[1] FEI Liang-jun;CHEN Nan-shu;XUE Cai;ZHANG Jing-hui;GAO Qiu-yan;LI Jing-si;LI Shan(School of Water Resources and Hydraulic electric generating,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,Shaanxi;Jingtaichuan Electric Power Purification Administration of Gansu Province,Jingtai 730400)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]甘肃景泰川电力提灌管理局,甘肃景泰730400

出　　处：《地下水》2020年第6期89-90,143,共3页Ground water

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779205);甘肃省科技计划项目(144NKCD238)。

摘　　要：气候变化不仅影响灌区水资源量及其分布,也会改变作物需水规律,影响灌区农业灌溉需水量。本文依据景泰县气象站1958-2017年气象资料及景电灌区1998-2017年种植面积和种植结构资料,利用通径分析法研究了气候变化和人类活动对景电灌区农业灌溉需水量的影响特征,并建立相关回归预测模型。研究结果表明,各影响因素对灌区农业灌溉需水量影响作用大小依次为种植面积、日照时数、平均气温、平均风速、经济作物比、平均相对湿度、降水量;建立的回归模型对灌区农业灌溉需水量的预测精度较高,适用于于灌区未来农业灌溉需水量的预测。Climate change not only affects the amount and distribution of water resources in irrigated areas,but also changes the law of crop water requirement,affecting the irrigation water requirement of irrigated district.Based on meteorological data of Jingtai County meteorological station from 1958 to 2017,planting area and planting structure data of Jingtai irrigated district from 1998 to 2017,this article used path analysis to study the characteristics of the impact of climate change and human activities on agricultural irrigation water demand of Jingtai irrigated district,and established the relevant regression prediction model.The results showed that the effects of various factors on irrigation water requirement in irrigated areas were as follows:planting area,annual sunshine hours,average temperature,wind speed,cash crop ratio,relative humidity and precipitation.The regression model has a high accuracy in predicting the irrigation water demand of irrigated district and is suitable for predicting the future irrigation water demand of irrigated district.

关 键 词：景电灌区 农业灌溉需水量 影响因素 通径分析法 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]