2018-2019年流感流行季节浙江省宁波市北仑区发病率研究  

Estimating the incidence of the 2018–2019 influenza season in Beilun district of Ningbo city,Zhejiang

作　　者：陈奕[1] 纪威[1] 劳旭影[1] 李巧方 王海波[1] 张栋梁[1] 丁克琴[1] 易波[1] Chen Yi;Ji Wei;Lao Xuying;Li Qiaofang;Wang Haibo;Zhang Dongliang;Ding Keqin;Yi Bo(Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo Prefectural Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo 315010,Zhejiang,China;Beilun District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo 315010,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,浙江宁波315010 [2]宁波市北仑区疾病预防控制中心,浙江宁波315010

出　　处：《疾病监测》2020年第11期1003-1007,共5页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(No.2018ZX10201002-008-006);宁波市公益类科技计划项目(No.202002N3186);宁波市自然科学基金项目(No.2018A610239)。

摘　　要：目的基于区域健康大数据平台,估算2018-2019年浙江省宁波市北仑区流行性感冒(流感)流行季的真实发病数和发病率,评估流感真实发病水平。方法采用回顾性分析,基于宁波市区域健康医疗大数据平台和流感监测网络平台,通过大数据挖掘技术,获取全区所有急性上呼吸道感染就诊记录,结合流感核酸阳性率,估算北仑区2018-2019年流行季流感的真实发病数和发病率。结果经估算,宁波市北仑区2018年10月至2019年9月,流感发病人数约为27 683~115 123人,流感发病率约为4.14%~17.23%,显著高于法定报告发病数。其中0~4岁组发病率最高,为29.28%~76.81%;其次5~14岁组,发病率为17.31%~46.61%。流感估算发病数与法定报告发病数流行趋势高度一致,有统计学意义(rs1=0.914,rs2=0.923,P值均<0.001)。结论区域流感发病率显著高于法定报告发病率,15岁以下和60岁以上两个人群是重点防控人群,扩大和提高这两个年龄组流感疫苗的覆盖率十分必要。Objective To estimate the actual case number and incidence rate of influenza in 2018–2019 season in Beilun district of Ningbo and evaluate the actual local incidence level of influenza. Methods Retrospective analysis was adopted.Based on Ningbo regional health medical big data platform and influenza surveillance network platform and through the big data mining technology, all the records of acute upper respiratory tract infections in the district were obtained, and combined with the influenza nucleic acid positive rate, the case number and incidence rate of influenza in 2018–2019 season in Beilun were estimated. Results From October 2018 to September 2019, the estimated case number of influenza ranged from 27 683 to 115 123 approximately, and the estimated incidence rate of influenza ranged from 4.14% to 17.23% approximately in Beilun, significantly higher than the reported data. The incidence rate was highest in age group 0–4 years, ranging from29.28% to 76.81%, and the incidence rate in age group 5–14 years ranged from 17.31% to 46.61%. The estimated case number of influenza was highly consistent with the incidence trend of reported cases with statistical significance(rs1=0.914, rs2=0.923, P<0.001). Conclusion The local incidence rate of influenza was significantly higher than the reported one. Age groups <15 years and >60 years are key populations in the prevention and control of influenza. It is necessary to expand and increase the coverage of influenza vaccination in these two age groups.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 发病率 估算 区域健康大数据平台 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R183.3