基于进化博弈的水利工程施工安全监督管理探究  

Research on Safety Supervision and Management of Water Conservancy Project Construction Based on Evolutionary Game

作　　者：何帮志 HE Bang-zhi(Xinjiang Sanhe Construction Engineering Co.Ltd.,Aksu 843000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆三河建设工程有限责任公司,新疆阿克苏843000

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2020年第11期103-108,共6页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：在水利工程施工监理单位及施工承包单位具有一定限制理性的前提下,基于进化博弈理论构建二者之间的博弈模型,探究水利工程施工中存在的安全监督管理影响因素以及施工安全监督管理进化稳定策略。研究结果表明,在水利工程施工中,监理单位的施工安全监督管理方案的制定与实施主要是基于监督管理过程中产生的监督成本、管理中存在的失误及其带来的损失;施工承包单位施工方案的制定及实施主要是基于工程的投入、发生工程问题后带来的后果等具有直接的联系。根据研究结果,并将各相关因素进行Matab仿真分析,建立博弈运行过程,以期为我国今后水利工程施工安全监督管理提供参考与借鉴。On the premise that the construction supervision unit and the construction contractor of water conservancy project have certain restriction rationality,the game model between them is built based on the evolutionary game theory,and the influencing factors of safety supervision and management in the construction of water conservancy project and the evolutionary stability strategy of construction safety supervision and management are explored.The research results show that in the construction of water conservancy project,the formulation and implementation of the supervision unit′s construction safety supervision and management plan is mainly based on the supervision cost,the mistakes in management and the losses caused by the supervision and management process;the formulation and implementation of the construction contractor′s construction plan is mainly based on the investment in the project and the consequences after the occurrence of the project problems contact.According to the research results and Matab simulation analysis of the relevant factors,the game operation process is established,which provides certain reference value for the construction safety supervision and management of water conservancy projects in China in the future.

关 键 词：进化博弈理论 水利工程 安全监督管理 稳定策略 建模分析 

分 类 号：TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]