2020年大选及其对美国内政外交的影响  

The 2020 Election and Its Impacts on American Domestic and Foreign Affairs

作　　者：刘卫东[1,2] 罗振兴 杨水清[1] 魏南枝[1,4] 张一飞 杨楠[1] 李枏 刘得手 张帆[1,6] 袁征[1] 无 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所 [2]中国社会科学院政治研究室 [3]中国社会科学院经济研究室 [4]中国社会科学院社会文化研究室 [5]中国社会科学院外交研究室 [6]中国社会科学院战略研究室 [7]中国社会科学院美国研究所专论写作组

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2020年第4期1-41,122-124,共44页Contemporary American Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“西方国家在金融危机之后的制度反思研究”(项目编号:18BGJ061)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2020年大选对美国内政外交各方面都产生了深刻的影响。从美国国内政治角度来看,本次大选是对特朗普的全民公决。民主党虽然赢得了总统职位,但共和党也基本保住了参议院和州长的多数席位,并在众议院缩小了差距。从大选结果来看,没有哪个党派获得了明显优势。大选虽然基本结束,但民粹主义不会退出历史舞台,美国国内的价值对抗和社会分裂仍会持续,两党内部和相互之间的博弈可能会更激烈。可以预计,即将执政的拜登政府将比较弱势,民主党的执政地位也不稳定,而“特朗普主义”仍将以各种方式对美国政治的运行发挥影响。从经济角度看,拜登政府的国内经济政策主张可概括为“三多”,即税收多、支出多和监管多;其国际经济政策主张可概括为“四重”,即重公平、重规则、重多边、重安全。总体来看,拜登的经济政策主张以经济民族主义为底色、以扩张性财政政策为特色,国家干预的成分较浓厚,其政策主张建立在民主党强调平等、公正、大政府和国际合作的理念基础之上,也是民主党更关注人权、劳工权利和环境保护等政策理念的反映。拜登政府将中国定位为合作有限的战略竞争对手,强调公平贸易,对中国仍然较为强硬。预计短期内不会取消“301”关税,中美两国的新一轮经贸谈判会适时开启;美中产业链转移和“脱钩”进程仍将继续,但速度会放缓;中美科技竞争将进一步升级,但会增加合作领域,竞争和冲突的可控性将得到提高;美国对华金融制裁会进入新阶段。在社会文化领域,2020年美国大选的结果表明,美国社会不仅向高度政治化的方向发展,而且选民群体在种族、意识形态、阶层、职业、地区、年龄、受教育程度和性别等多个维度都处于高度撕裂之中。支持还是反对特朗普是影响本次大选的最重要因素,即使美国新冠肺炎疫情蔓�The 2020 US presidential election has had a profound impact on both its domestic and foreign affairs.From the domestic perspective,the election could be regarded as a referendum on Donald Trump.Although the Democrats won the presidency,the Republicans are projected to keep control of the Senate,and narrowed the gap in the House of Representatives,which means that neither party claimed a landslide victory.Even the result has basically settled,nationwide populism will not withdraw from the stage of history.Confrontations on values will escalate,fragmentation of society will continue,and the rivalry between the two parties is expected to increase.It is hard,though not impossible,to see any substantial breakthrough in the upcoming Biden administration,and the ruling status of the Democratic Party appears to be unstable as well.The US political ecology will be continuously and comprehensively influenced by Trumpism.In the economic domain,the characteristics of Biden s domestic economic policies could be concluded as tax more,expenditure more,and supervision more.Meanwhile,the new administration s international economic policies would primarily focus on fairness,rules,multilateralism,and security.These policies follow economic nationalism,with expansionary fiscal policy and state intervention based on the Democrats ruling philosophy of equality,justice,big government and international cooperation,as well as paying close attention to human rights,labor rights,and environmental protection.The new government will still regard China as a strategic competitor and take robust measures accordingly.It is expected that the Section 301 tariffs are likely to continue in the short term;the two countries would launch a new round of economic and trade negotiation at an appropriate time;the process of economic decoupling will continue,but with slower speed;technological competition and cooperation between the two countries will deepen,with improved controllability;and the US financial sanctions against China will enter a new stage.In

关 键 词：2020年美国大选 美国政治 美国经济 美国社会文化 美国外交 中美关系 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]