淮河上游致洪暴雨对王家坝水位影响分析及估测  

Analysis and Estimation of the Impact of Flood-causing Rainstorm on the Wangjiaba Dam Water Level in the Upper Reaches of Huaihe River

作　　者：张霞[1,2] 赵培娟 张渊萌[2] 栗晗 Zhang Xia;Zhao Peijuan;Zhang Yuanmeng;Li Han(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2020年第4期1-10,共10页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(172102310463);河南省气象局重点项目(KZ201701)。

摘　　要：采用19802018年王家坝逐日水位、河南省逐日降水等资料,分析了王家坝洪水特征及淮河上游降水对王家坝水位的影响,结果表明:主汛期的68月是王家坝洪水易发时段,持续日数达7 d及以上的洪水均发生在主汛期68月,又以7月最易发。2007年7月王家坝洪水持续25 d,居1980年以来持续日数之最。依据淮河水系将河南省淮河流域分为ⅠⅢ区。王家坝洪水与Ⅰ区暴雨关系密切。该区连续性暴雨或单日强降水均可导致王家坝洪水,王家坝水位一般在强降水结束后的第3日或第4日达到短期最高水位;王家坝最大水位增幅与Ⅰ区单日面雨量相关系数为0.712,与Ⅰ区连续5 d累计面雨量相关系数高达0.857。基于淮河上游面雨量对王家坝水位影响分析和洪水前及持续期间暴雨特征统计结果,定义了淮河上游致洪暴雨标准,建立了基于面雨量的王家坝水位最大增幅估测模型,实现了对王家坝水位增幅的短中期估测。经43次洪水过程回算,模型估测正确率达74.4%;对2019年59月4次区域暴雨过程水位进行估测,最大水位增幅为1.5~2.3 m,估测王家坝未出现洪水,与实况一致。In this paper,we analyze the characteristics of Wangjiaba flood and the impact of the rainfall in the upper reaches of Huaihe River on the water level in Wangjiaba dam by using the data of the 19802018 daily water levels of Wangjiaba dam and the daily precipitation in Henan province.The results show that the most prone period of flooding in Wangjiaba dam is from June to August in the main flood season.Floods last for 7 days or longer all occurred in this period,especially in July.In July 2007,the flood in Wangjiaba lasted for 25 days,the most days since 1980.Belonging to the Huaihe River system,the Huaihe River Basin in Henan province is divided intoⅠⅢareas.The flood of Wangjiaba dam is closely related to the torrential rain in the area I.The continuous torrential rain or single day intense rainfall in this area can result in the flood occurrence in Wangjiaba dam,and the short-term water level generally reaches the highest on the third or fourth day after heavy rainfall.The correlation coefficient between the maximum water level increment of Wangjiaba and the single day areal rainfall in area I is 0.712.However,it becomes as high as 0.857 between the maximum water level increment and the accumulated areal rainfall for 5 consecutive days in area I.Based on the influence analysis of areal rainfall on the water level of Wangjiaba dam in the upper reaches of Huaihe River and the statistical results of heavy rain characteristics before and during the period of flood,the standard for flood-causing torrential rain in the upper reaches of Huaihe River is defined,and,moreover,the estimation model of maximum increment of water level in Wangjiaba dam is established according to the areal rainfall,achieving the short-term and medium-term estimation of water level increment in Wangjiaba dam.The estimation accuracy of 43 times of flood process calculation is 74.4%.The water levels of the dam during the four regional torrential rain processes from May to September 2019 are estimated.It is estimated the maximum increment of

关 键 词：致洪暴雨 王家坝 水位增量 估测 

分 类 号：P332.3[天文地球—水文科学]