外围利益攸关方、双重依赖与阿富汗和谈中的印度  

Peripheral Stakeholders,Dual Dependenceand India's Involvement in Afghan Peace'Talks

作　　者：刘红良[1] Liu Hongliang

机构地区：[1]赣南师范大学新加坡研究中心

出　　处：《南亚研究》2020年第4期50-69,155,共21页South Asian Studies

基　　金：2019年度教育部人文社科规划基金项目《印美安全合作发展趋向及其对中国的影响研究》(项目批准号:19YJAGJW005)的系列研究成果。

摘　　要：阿富汗和谈进程加速以来,围绕和谈的博弈日渐活跃,多重博弈关系紧密交织。作为在阿富汗有着多重利益存在和战略资产的国家,和谈进程及结果对印度利益攸关。与此形成鲜明对照,印度在多重博弈中处于弱势位置,参与程度低,因而存在利益攸关程度高与实现程度低的张力。在围绕阿富汗和谈的多重博弈关系中,印度因其政策、举措导致其在和谈进程中位属参与者,仅能发挥微弱的外围作用,由此限制了印度维护战略收益的手段。印度参与方式及作用受到对阿政策限制性条件的约束,在外在约束方面印度需要借助与主要大国的政策连接,在政策一致性的前提下方能更好维护利益目标。在阿富汗国内政治结构的约束方面,印度的政策目标需要维持与主导性政治力量的合作才得以实现。面对和谈进程加速及协议达成,印度采取了一些应对举措,但囿于其阿富汗政策的内外约束性,其政策实施的空间收窄,阿富汗和谈结果及发展趋向对印度相对不利。As the pace of Afghanistan's peace talks has picked up,lively dynamics have emerged around the talks,with various relationshipsbecoming more intertwined in the process.As a state with many interestsand strategic assets in Afghanistan,India sees the outcome of theAfghanistan peace process as critical.While so,India's position withrespect to many aspects of the process is weak,and its participationminimal.As such,there is a significant contradiction between what Indiahas at stake in the process,and its ability to influence the outcome.Withinthe context of the dynamic and complex relations around the Afghan peacetalks,due to both its policies and practices,India can play only aperipheral role.This limits the means,that India has available formaintaining its strategic interests.The re$trictive nature of India's policytowards Afghanistan is especially limiting vis-a-vis India's participation.Asfor external restraints,India needs to rely on policy connections with greatpowers,while it could otherwise better ensure its strategic objectives if itwere able to maintain more continuity in its policies.Afghanistan's domesticpolitical situation presents further limitations,as India's policy objectivesneed to be maintained in cooperation with the dominant political forces inthe country.Faced with a rapidly progressing peace process and theimminent conclusion of a peace agreement,India has adopted somecountermeasures,however due to thevarious constraints onitsAfghanistan policy,this has narrowed the space for India to implement itspolicies.As such,the outcome of the Afghan peace talks and broader trendsin the country are relatively unfavorable for India.

关 键 词：阿富汗和谈 印度 利益攸关方 双重依赖 塔利班 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系] D835.1[政治法律—政治学]