新疆阿克苏断层H2浓度影响因素及映震效能分析  

The Influence Factors of Fault H2 and Earthquake Prediction Capability in Aksu,Xinjiang

作　　者：李娜[1] 向阳 邢喜民 梁卉[1] LI Na;XIANG Yang;XING Ximin;LIANG Hui(Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,338 Second-Kexue Road,Urumqi 830011,China;Institute of Crustal Dynamics,CEA,1 Anningzhuang Road,Beijing 100085,China;College of Mathematics and Physics,Xinjiang Institute of Engineering,1350 Aidinghu Road,Urumqi 830023,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,乌鲁木齐市科学二街338号,830011 [2]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京市安宁庄路1号,100085 [3]新疆工程学院数理学院,乌鲁木齐市艾丁湖路1350号,830023

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2021年第1期83-88,共6页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(ZDJ2017-27);中国地震局地震科技星火计划(XH19052Y);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2019010305)。

摘　　要：利用相关和回归分析方法,分析断层H2浓度与气温、气压之间的相关关系,得到气温与断层H2浓度的回归方程。通过R值评分方法对断层H2浓度回归残差进行映震效能检验,结果表明:1)气温为阿克苏断层H2浓度变化的主要影响因素,与断层H2浓度呈高度正相关;气压对阿克苏断层H2浓度变化影响较小,与断层H2浓度呈中低度负相关。2)断层H2浓度回归残差R值为0.6907,映震效果较好,尤其是对于5级地震的平均预测对应期为23 d,优势发震区为南天山西段。We analyze the relationship between fault H2 concentration and air temperature and air pressure to obtain a regression equation using correlation and regression analysis methods.Through the R-value grading method,we test the earthquake prediction capability of fault H2 concentration regression residuals.The results show that:1)Air temperature is the main influence factor of fault H2 concentration change in Aksu with high positive correlation.Air pressure has little effect on fault H2 concentration variation in Aksu with low-medium degree negative correlation.2)The regression residual R value of fault H2 concentration is 0.6907,and the earthquake prediction capability is good.The mean corresponding period of M5 earthquake prediction is 23 d.The dominant seismogenic zone is the western section of southern Tianshan.

关 键 词：断层H2浓度 影响因素 R值评分 映震效能 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]