“一带一路”生产网络演化及中国经济贡献分析  

Evolution of the Belt and Road production networks and China’s economic contribution

作　　者：郑智 刘卫东[1,2,3] 宋周莺[1,2,3] 黄梦娜[1,3,4] ZHENG Zhi;LIU Weidong;SONG Zhouying;HUANG Mengna(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [4]中国科学院资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理研究》2020年第12期2653-2668,共16页Geographical Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20080000);中科院重点布署项目(KFZD-SW-321);青年科学基金项目(41701138)。

摘　　要：在全球生产网络时代背景下,"一带一路"沿线国家间生产网络的形成和发展对于"一带一路"倡议的进一步推进有着重要意义。"一带一路"倡议提出以来,国内外对其有着诸多误解以及曲解,建立有利于"一带一路"实施的话语体系同样至关重要。本文运用投入产出、增加值分解以及网络分析等方法,对"一带一路"生产网络演化过程以及中国通过生产网络对"一带一路"沿线国家的经济带动作用开展定量研究,结果表明:①1995—2015年,"一带一路"沿线国家生产网络联系不断加强。②生产网络结构发生重大变化,重心转移和一体化趋势并存。③中国通过生产网络合作对"一带一路"沿线国家经济贡献不断加大,有效地带动了区域经济的发展。④中国对"一带一路"沿线国家经济贡献量分布呈现出南北高,中间低的地理格局。"一带一路"沿线国家加强生产网络合作是激活后发优势,凸显比较优势以及共同应对外部经济风险的有效方法,同时"一带一路"学术话语体系的建设仍然任重道远,需要多学科的共同努力。The global production networks have become one of the most important organization platform for coordinating and organizing global production activities,and the development of production networks in the Belt and Road area has a great significance for further promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative.At the same time,since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward,there has been an endless stream of misunderstandings and even negative remarks.So it is also crucial to establish a discourse system conducive to the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.This paper uses the methods of input and output analysis,value-added decomposition and network analysis to carry out quantitative research on the evolution process of production networks in the Belt and Road region and China’s economic drive to this region through production networks.The results show that:(1)From 1995 to 2015,the inter-regional production network links in the Belt and Road region were constantly strengthened.(2)The regional production network structure underwent great changes,and the focus shift and integration trend coexisted.(3)China’s contribution to the economic development of the Belt and Road region through production network cooperation continuously increased and effectively promoted the development of the regional economy.(4)China’s economic contribution to the Belt and Road region presents a geographical pattern of high in the northern and southern regions and low in the central region.This paper proposes that strengthening the production network cooperation in the Belt and Road region is an effective way to activate latecomer advantages,highlight comparative advantages and jointly respond to external economic risks.At the same time,establishing the academic discourse system of the Belt and Road still requires joint multi-disciplinary efforts.

关 键 词：区域生产网络 格局演变 经济贡献 话语权 “一带一路”倡议 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F124