广西一次能源需求中长期预测与分析  

Medium-Long Term Forecast and Analysis of Primary Energy Demand in Guangxi

作　　者：于明 林信 郭华 陈昉 赵星源 徐高 李丹丹 YU Ming;LIN Xin;GUO Hua;CHEN-Fang;ZHAO Xing-yuan;XU Gao;LI Dan-dan(Guangxi Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Nanning 530000,China;Beijing North-Star Digital Remote Sensing Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100120,China)

机构地区：[1]广西电网有限责任公司,广西南宁530000 [2]北京洛斯达数字遥感技术有限公司,北京100120

出　　处：《电力勘测设计》2020年第12期1-5,共5页Electric Power Survey & Design

摘　　要：能源需求预测对经济的可持续发展、资源的合理利用、现代化目标的实现及节约型社会的构建具有重要的现实意义。本研究从广西实际出发,依托广西能源数据中心建设课题成果,提出广西一次能源需求中长期预测模型。通过该模型,进行2025、2030和2050年广西一次能源需求预测和分析。实例表明,本模型能够科学合理地预测能源需求和供给能力、科学评价能源供需缺口,为制定广西中长期能源发展战略提供基本依据。Energy demand forecasting has important practical significance for the sustainable development of economy,the rational utilization of resources,the realization of modernization goals and the construction of a conservation-oriented society.Starting from the reality of Guangxi,this study relies on the results of the Guangxi Energy Data Center construction project,puts forward a medium and long-term forecast model of primary energy demand in Guangxi.Through this model,the primary energy demands of Guangxi in 2025 year,2030 year and 2050 year are forecasted and analyzed.Examples show that this model can scientifically and reasonably predict energy demand and supply capacity,scientifically evaluate energy supply and demand gap,and provide basic basis for formulating medium and long-term energy development strategy in Guangxi.

关 键 词：能源大数据 一次能源需求 中长期预测分析 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]