基于分期设权理想点法的水文模型参数多目标优化  

Multi-Objective Optimization of Hydrological Model Parameters Based on the Stage-Weighted Ideal Point Method

作　　者：康艳[1,2] 伊丽 龚家国 Kang Yan;Yi Li;Gong Jiaguo(School of Water Resource and Architectural Engineering,Northwest Agriculture and Forest University,Yangling 722100,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Northwest Agriculture and Forest University,Yangling 722100,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,杨凌712100 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《天津大学学报（自然科学与工程技术版）》2021年第5期458-467,共10页Journal of Tianjin University：Science and Technology

基　　金：陕西省水利科技计划资助项目(2019slkj-14);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51409222);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401306).

摘　　要：针对水文模型参数多目标优化问题中计算复杂且多目标之间存在相互矛盾的问题,提出了基于分期设权理想点法的水文模型参数多目标优化方法.以ABCD水文模型为月径流预报模型,构建径流总水量误差、平均相对误差、高水流量纳什效率系数和低水流量纳什效率系数4种目标函数,采用分期设权理想点法将多目标函数转化为单目标,并采用粒子群优化算法求解目标函数.以泾河流域月径流为例,设置全时期(A)、丰水期(B)、枯水期(C)、分期模拟-组合(D)4种模拟方案,分析不同方案下模型模拟效果,结果表明:在全时期模拟方案中,相较于单目标优化方案A1~A4,多目标优化方案A5能有效地表征多个水文过程特征,协调目标函数间的互斥关系,模拟效果更优;在分期模拟方案中,目标权重为0.75时的子方案B3、C3既能合理体现目标函数表征的水文特征,又能兼顾其他目标函数,模拟效果相对最佳;丰、平、枯水期分期模拟-组合方案D对高水流量与低水流量过程模拟效果较全时期多目标优化方案的模拟效果更优,评价指标决定系数R2、效率系数Ens均达到0.8以上,平均绝对百分误差APE小于1%,说明分期模拟-组合方案D能有效提高模型模拟精度.Because of the complexity of calculation and the contradiction between multiple objectives in the multiobjective optimization of hydrological model parameters,a multi-objective optimization method based on the stageweighted ideal point method was proposed.Taking the ABCD hydrological model as a monthly runoff prediction model,four kinds of objective functions,namely,overall water balance error,average relative error,Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of high flow,and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of low flow,were constructed.The multi-objective functions were converted into a single objective by the stage-weighted ideal point method and solved by particle swarm optimization.The models were applied to the simulation of monthly runoff in the Jinghe River Basin.Four simulation schemes were set up,namely,full period(A),wet period(B),dry period(C),and staged simulationcombination(D).The simulation results under different schemes were analyzed.The results show that in the full period(A)simulation scheme,the multi-objective optimization scheme(A5)can effectively represent multiple hydrological process characteristics and coordinate the mutual exclusion relationship between objective functions.Moreover,the simulation effects of multi-objective optimization are better than those of single-objective optimization.In the staged simulation combination scheme,the sub-scheme can not only reflect the hydrological characteristics of the objective function reasonably,but also take into account other objective functions when the weights of the rainy-period and low-water objectives are 0.75;thus,this scheme is better than the other schemes.The staged simulation combination scheme had a better simulation effect than the multi-objective optimization scheme in the high-flow and low-flow periods.The correlation and efficiency coefficients of the evaluation indices are all greater than 0.8,and the average absolute percentage error is less than 1%.This finding shows that the scheme of the staged simulation combination scheme can effectively improve

关 键 词：水文模型参数多目标优化 分期设权理想点法 ABCD水文模型 径流模拟 泾河流域 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]