空间经济学视角下新冠肺炎疫情的时空扩散规律研究  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Diffusion Law of COVID-19 from the Perspective of Spatial Economics

作　　者：张可云[1,2] 张颖 王洋志[1,2] 冯晟 Zhang Ke-yun;Zhang Ying;Wang Yang-zhi;Feng Sheng(School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872;Information Center for Social Sciences,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学书报资料中心,北京100872

出　　处：《经济纵横》2020年第11期84-95,共12页Economic Review Journal

摘　　要：本文基于全国31个省区市的新冠肺炎病例数据及经济社会发展统计数据,运用空间经济学中技术扩散理论的分析方法,通过拟合流行病学曲线并构建空间自相关模型和疫情扩散模型,研究了新冠肺炎疫情的时空扩散规律。结果发现:新冠肺炎疫情的时间扩散过程大体经历了暴发阶段、缓和阶段、攻坚阶段和消退阶段;新冠肺炎疫情的空间扩散与空间距离更加相关,扩散方式以波浪式扩散为主。新冠肺炎疫情的省际扩散依赖空间距离和经济距离,扩散速度随疫情扩散阶段的演进而有所减缓。进一步地,新冠肺炎疫情的省际扩散未能突破胡焕庸线,且在我国南北方也表现出明显的分异特征。在后疫情阶段,既要确保疫情常态化防控,又要重视重振经济发展活力,大力发展医疗卫生服务业,优化医疗资源布局;重视西部和北方地区发展,加强区域经济合作;鼓励超大规模市场建设,促进经济高质量发展;积极完善国内产业链条,增强经济发展复原力。Based on the data of COVID-19 and economic and social development statistics of 31 provinces across China,using the analysis method of technology diffusion theory in spatial economics,this article studies the spatiotemporal diffusion law of COVID-19 by fitting epidemiological curves and constructing spatial autocorrelation model and epidemic diffusion model.The conclusions are as follows:the temporal diffusion of COVID-19 has generally gone through the outbreak stage,the mitigation stage,the critical stage and the retreat stage;the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 is more related to spatial distance,and the diffusion method is mainly wave-like.The inter-provincial diffusion of COVID-19 depends on spatial distance and economic distance,and the rate of diffusion has slowed down with the evolution of the diffusion of COVID-19.What is more,the inter-provincial spread of COVID-19 has failed to break through the“Hu Huanyong Line”,and it also shows obvious differentiation characteristics in the north and south of China.In the post-epidemic stage,it is significant to ensure the normal prevention and control of COVID-19 and rejuvenate the vitality of economic development.We should vigorously develop the medical and health service industry and optimize the distribution of medical resources,focus on the development of the western and northern regions and strengthen regional economic cooperation,encourage hyperscale market construction to promote high-quality economic development and actively improve the domestic industrial chains to increase the resilience of economic development.

关 键 词：空间经济学 新冠肺炎疫情 时空扩散 疫情扩散模型 

分 类 号：F299.1[经济管理—国民经济]