呼和浩特市暖季气象因素对手足口病发病的影响  

Influence of Climate Factors in Warm Season in Hohhot,China,on the Incidence of Hand,Foot,and Mouth Disease

作　　者：王宇倩 洪志敏[1,2] 王晓磊[3] 王虎虎 WANG Yuqian;HONG Zhimin;WANG Xiaolei;WANG Huhu(College of Science,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Statistical Analysis Theory for Life Data and Neural Network Modeling,College of Sciences,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China;Department of Ultrasound,Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot 010050,China;Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hohhot 010031,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学理学院,呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古工业大学理学院,内蒙古自治区生命数据统计分析理论与神经网络建模重点实验室,呼和浩特010051 [3]内蒙古医科大学附属医院超声科,呼和浩特010050 [4]内蒙古自治区综合疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,呼和浩特010031

出　　处：《病毒学报》2020年第6期1059-1066,共8页Chinese Journal of Virology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目号:81860605),题目:手足口病流行时空预测研究;内蒙古自然科学基金项目(项目号:2020MS01005),题目:时空变系数模型的统计推断与应用;内蒙古工业大学研究生教育教学改革项目(项目号:YJG2017012),题目:应用研究型人才培养模式下随机过程课程教学改革研究。

摘　　要：近年来全球范围的气候变化对人群健康的潜在风险和副作用持续增加,气象因素对人群的健康影响在国内外均得到广泛关注。为探讨不同气象因素与内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市手足口病(Hand,foot,and mouth disease,HFMD)发病之间的非线性与滞后关系,同时分析气象因素对男女发病的影响是否存在差异,为相似气候地区HFMD的科学防控工作提供理论参考与实践指导,本研究利用泊松广义线性模型结合分布滞后非线性模型(Distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM)分析2009~2017年5~9月(暖季)呼和浩特市HFMD日发病数与同期主要气象因素之间的关系。呼和浩特市2009~2017年暖季共报告病例22330例,男女性别比为1.38∶1。平均温度对HFMD的影响呈倒"V"型,最大相对风险位于22.8℃温度值。相对湿度对HFMD的影响呈曲线上升,且相对湿度越大,发病风险越高。高温(23.1℃)的最大累积滞后效应出现在滞后15 d(RR=1.57,95%CI:1.44~1.72),低日照时数(6.0h)的最大效应出现在滞后21 d(RR=1.16,95%CI:1.03~1.29),高风速(25.0 m/s)累积效应在滞后21 d达到最大(RR=2.66,95%CI:1.02~6.96),高湿度(92.0%)累积效应在滞后21 d达到最大(RR=3.21,95%CI:2.01~5.14)。气象因素对呼和浩特市暖季HFMD发病存在影响,温度、最大风速和相对湿度存在明显滞后效应,日照时数和极大风速对不同性别发病影响存在差异。The potential risks and side effects of global climate change on population health have been increasing in recent years,and the impact of the climate factors on population health has received extensive attention at home and abroad.To explore the non-linear and lag relationship between different climate factors and the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)among different genders in Hohhot,China,and to provide theoretical and practical guidance for prevention and control of HFMD for regions with a similar climate,a Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the relationship between the daily incidence of HFMD from May to September,2009–2017(warm season)and the main climate factors during the same period.A total of 22,330 cases were reported in Hohhot,China,during the warm season from 2009 to 2017,and the male-to-female ratio was 1.38:1.There was an inverse V-shaped relationship between the average temperature and HFMD,with a peak cumulative relative risk at 22.8°C.The effect of relative humidity on HFMD was positive:the greater the relative humidity,the higher was the relative risk of occurrence of HFMD.The effect of high temperature(23.1°C),few hours of sunshine(6 h),high wind speed(25.0 m/s)and high relative humidity(92.0%)was long-lasting,with the highest relative risk at lag 15 days(RR=1.57,95%CI:1.44–1.72),21 days(RR=1.16,95%CI:1.03–1.29),21 days(RR=2.66,95%CI:1.02–6.96)and 21 days(RR=3.21,95%CI:2.01–5.14),respectively.The climate factors have the influence on the HFMD incidence in Hohhot,China,and the effects of average temperature,maximum wind speed and relative humidity on the HFMD incidence are lags.There are significant differences in gender between HFMD and sunshine hours and the maximum wind speed.

关 键 词：手足口病(HFMD) 气象因素 滞后效应 分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM) 

分 类 号：R373.2[医药卫生—病原生物学] R511[医药卫生—基础医学]