新型冠状病毒肺炎传播的时空特征及空间风险因子--以广州市为例  

Spatiotemporal characteristics and spatial risk factors of COVID-19 transmission:taking Guangzhou as an example

作　　者：朱洪平 孙满芳 ZHU Hongping;SUN Manfang(School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China;Xiamen Haicang Hospital,Xiamen 361026,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广州510520 [2]厦门市海沧医院,厦门361026

出　　处：《中国高原医学与生物学杂志》2020年第4期275-283,共9页Journal of Chinese High Altitude Medicine & Biology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41001054)。

摘　　要：目的为新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称“新冠肺炎”)或者其他传染性疾病的应急防控措施提供科学依据。方法﹐以2020年广州市新冠肺炎确诊病例作为研究对象,运用核密度估计方法建立新冠肺炎分布密度图,并用Moran'sⅠ指数和LISA指数来分析新冠肺炎确诊病例的全局和局部空间相关性特征,再运用波段集分析法对商店、饭店、宾馆、医院,旅游景点和公交车站等空间风险因子进行研究。险因子进行研究。结果﹐新冠肺炎分布存在明显的空间集聚性,各阶段Moran'sⅠ指数逐渐降低;LISA指数的高值区域主要分布在广州的城市中心位置;新冠肺炎分布与各类空间风险因子经波段集统计显示其呈高度正相关,其中医院的相关系数最高(P<0.05)。结论﹐从整体上看,新冠肺炎传播的空间集聚性呈现逐渐减弱的趋势;从局部上看,新冠肺炎分布的高高值区域主要集中在城市中心地段。商店、饭店、宾馆、医院、旅游景点和公交车站等空间风险因子均显著推动新冠肺炎的传播,而医院的影响程度最大。Objective To provide a scientific basis for the emergency prevention and control measures forcoVID-19 or other infectious diseases.Methods Taking the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Guangzhou in2020 as the research object,the map of distribution density of CoVID-19 was established by using the methodof Nuclear Density Estimation.The characteristics of global and local spatial correlation of the confirmed casesof COVID-19 were analyzed by using Moran's index and LISA index.Spatial risk factors like shops,restau-rants,hotels,hospitals,tourist attractions and bus stations were studied by using band set analysis.ResultsThere was an obvious spatial aggregation in the distribution of COVID-19,and the Moran's I index graduallydecreased at each stage;the high value area of the LISA index was mainly located in the center of Cuangahou;according to the statistics of band set,there was a positive correlation between the distribution of COVID-19 and various factors of spatial risk,among which hospitals had the highest corelation cofficient(P<0.05).Concusions 0n the wle,s aia agrgton of the spred of COVID-1I9 shows a gadalal wekening rdn;high-value ara of the dsrbton of COVID-1I9 is mainly cncntnte in ubhan core fom a local prpecie Spatil rik factors such as shops restaurants,hoslsfiolsiltoulit aaction and bus statins have sinificnl promoted the sped of COVID-19,among wich hospils have the greatst impet.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 时空特征 空间风险因子 广州市 

分 类 号：R184[医药卫生—流行病学]