鄂尔多斯盆地侏罗系煤田导水裂隙带高度预测及顶板充水模式  

Prediction of the height of water-conducting fracture zone and water-filling model of roof aquifer in Jurassic coalfield in Ordos Basin

作　　者：薛建坤 王皓 赵春虎 杨建 周振方 李德彬 XUE Jiankun;WANG Hao;ZHAO Chunhu;YANG Jian;ZHOU Zhenfang;LI Debin(Xi’an Research Institute of China Coal Technology&Engineering Group Corp,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Water Hazard Prevention and Control Technology in Shaanxi Province,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710077,China)

机构地区：[1]中煤科工集团西安研究院有限公司,陕西西安710054 [2]陕西省煤矿水害防治技术重点实验室,陕西西安710177

出　　处：《采矿与安全工程学报》2020年第6期1222-1230,共9页Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering

基　　金：天地科技股份有限公司科技创新基金项目(2018-TD-MS069,2018-TD-QN052);中煤科工集团西安研究院有限公司科技创新基金重点项目(2018XAYZD11)。

摘　　要：确定顶板含水层充水模式是顶板水害科学防治及保水采煤的基础,而导水裂隙带高度预测是关键,提高预测精度是研究的难点。以鄂尔多斯盆地侏罗系煤田为研究区域,以33个实测导水裂隙带高度样本为依据,基于粒子群(PSO)-支持向量机回归(SVR)的研究方法,构建了区域导水裂隙带高度预测模型。选择拟合优度R2、均方根误差RMSE为误差分析指标,通过对比PSO-SVR导高模型预测值与经验公式预测值,定量评价了PSO-SVR导高模型的预测精度,利用该模型预测了3个矿的导水裂隙带高度。研究结果表明:PSO-SVR导高模型预测值比经验公式预测值拟合优度提高0.10,均方根误差降低41.93,预测值与实测值较接近,与经验公式相比,提高了导水裂隙带高度预测精度。最后统计分析了研究区典型水文地质结构特征,按煤层埋深及含(隔)水层结构,划分了研究区3种水文地质结构类型:浅埋薄基岩厚松散含水层结构、中埋深厚基岩含水层结构、深埋巨厚复合基岩含水层结构。依据导水裂隙带预测结果及顶板水文地质结构类型,建立了研究区3种顶板含水层充水模式:浅埋松散含水层充水、中埋深厚砂岩含水层充水、深埋巨厚砂砾岩含水层充水。研究成果对于鄂尔多斯盆地侏罗系煤田顶板水害防治及保水采煤具有重要的实用价值。The determination of the water filling model of the roof aquifer is the basis of scientific pre vention and control of roof water damage.The prediction of height of water conducting fracture zone is the key,and the improvement of the prediction accuracy is the difficulty of research.With Jurassic coalfield in Ordos Basin as research background,based on 33 selected samples of measured height of water conducting fracture zone,a prediction model of height of water conducting fracture zone in regional mining was constructed with PSO-SVR.The goodness of fit R2 and root mean square error RMSE were selected as error analysis indexes and by comparing the predicted value of PSO-SVR model against that of empirical formula,the prediction accuracy of PSO-SVR model was evaluated quantitatively,and height of water conducting fracture zone of three mines was predicted with the model.The results have shown that the goodness of fit of PSO-SVR model is 0.10 higher than that of empirical formula,and the root mean square error is reduced by 41.93.The predicted value is close to the measured value.Compared with the empirical formula,the prediction accuracy of the height of the hydraulic fracture zone is improved.Finally,the typical hydrogeological structure characteristics of the study area have been statistically analyzed.According to the coal seam burial depth and aquifer structure,three types of hydrogeological structure have been classified in the study area:shallow buried thin bedrock thick loose aquifer structure,medium buried deep bedrock aquifer structure,and deep buried thick composite bedrock aquifer structure.According to the prediction results of water diversion fracture zone and hydrogeological structure type of the roof,three water filling modes of roof aquifer in the study area have been established:shallow buried loose aquifer,medium buried thick sandstone aquifer,and deep buried thick sandy conglomerate aquifer.The research results have important practical value for prevention and control of roof water damage and wat

关 键 词：鄂尔多斯盆地 水害防治 保水采煤 导水裂隙带高度 粒子群-支持向量机回归 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]