从公共支出效率看地方财政风险——基于中国239个地级市面板数据的经验分析  

Discussing Local Financial Risks from Public Expenditure Efficiency--Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Panel Data of China's 239 Prefecture Level Cities

作　　者：李振[1] 王秀芝[1,2] Li Zhen;Wang Xiuzhi

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心

出　　处：《财政研究》2020年第12期35-48,共14页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金专项项目“财税治理现代化问题研究”(17VZL012)。

摘　　要：我国减税降费力度的加强以及供给侧结构性改革的不断推进,在减轻企业和个人税费负担的同时,也会给地方政府带来财政压力,进而引发财政风险。本文通过构建一个以公共支出效率为逻辑起点的理论分析框架,阐述了其对地方财政风险的作用机制。在此基础上,运用三阶段数据包络分析方法测算了中国239个地级市的公共支出效率,并进行经验分析。研究得出:公共支出效率的提高,可以降低财政收入风险和财政支出风险,并且基于两者的共同作用进而降低财政赤字风险,其中财政支出风险的中介作用更大;此外,债务风险也得以降低,且与赤字风险之间呈现出U型关系。为此,从提高公共支出效率的角度提出防范化解我国地方财政风险的对策。The increasing degree of tax and fee reduction and the deepening of supply side structural reform in China will not only reduce the tax burden of enterprises and individuals,but also bring financial pressure to local governments,which will cause financial risk.This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework which begins with public expenditure efficiency,and discusses its mechanism of action on local financial risks.Based on this,this paper applies three-stage data envelopment analysis method to calculate the public expenditure efficiency of 239 prefecture level cities in China,and carries out empirical analysis.It is concluded that improving the efficiency of public expenditure can reduce fiscal expenditure risk and fiscal revenue risk,and then reduce the risk of fiscal deficit,in which the mediation of fiscal expenditure risk is greater.In addition,the risk of debt can also be reduced,and there is a U-shape relationship between debt risk and deficit risk.Therefore,this paper proposes countermeasures to prevent and resolve the local financial risks in China by improving the efficiency of public expenditure.

关 键 词：公共支出效率 地方财政风险 财政赤字 地方政府债务 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]