铁路交通行业可持续发展能力评价及演化规律研究  

Evaluation and evolution law of sustainable railway transport development

作　　者：闫志刚[1,2] 王雪丽 秦伟[1] 赵玉成[3] YAN Zhigang;WANG Xueli;QIN Wei;ZHAO Yucheng(Shijiazhuang Institute of Railway Technology,Shijiazhuang 050061,China;Hebei Green Intelligent Engineering Technology Center,Shijiazhuang 050018,China;Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050014,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁路职业技术学院,河北石家庄050061 [2]河北省绿色智能工程技术中心,河北石家庄050018 [3]石家庄铁道大学,河北石家庄050014

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2020年第12期3028-3035,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：河北省教育厅青年基金项目(QN2018102);河北省教育厅重点科研项目(ZD2019120)。

摘　　要：提升铁路交通行业可持续发展能力是实现我国交通现代化建设的重要保障。以可持续发展理论为基础,基于行业规模、经济需求、资源制约等发展要素,设计铁路交通行业可持续发展能力综合评价指标体系。通过构建定量评价模型、均衡发展系数与障碍度演化分析模型,分析我国铁路交通行业发展状态及其演化规律,识别出制约行业发展的主要因素。研究结果表明:2005~2018年间我国铁路交通行业可持续发展能力保持着逐年稳步上升的发展态势,行业指标均衡性随着行业发展周期呈现波动变化发展态势。依托铁路客运资源与行业优质资产对接城镇化进程,探索公交导向土地开发模式,提升行业盈利能力,依托铁路货运积极服务于国家多式联运发展战略,加大标准化系统集成的研发工作,充分发挥行业主导地位,是实现铁路交通行业可持续发展的重要保障。For China’s transportation modernization,the sustainable development ability of railway transportation is very important.Based on industry scale,economic demand,resource constraints and other development factors,the comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable railway transportation development capacity is designed.On this basis,quantitative evaluation model,balanced development coefficient and obstacle degree evolution analysis model were constructed.Based on the data from 2005 to 2018,the development status,evolution rules and constraints of China’s railway transportation industry were analyzed.It was found that the sustainable development capacity of China’s railway transportation has maintained a steady growth from 2005 to 2018.The equilibrium of industry indicators fluctuates with the development cycle of the industry.The improvement of profitability can be achieved through the development of TOD mode relying on railway passenger transport.And with the help of national intermodal transport development strategy,railway freight capacity can be improved.With the balanced development,the sustainable development capacity of railway transportation can be improved.

关 键 词：铁路交通 可持续发展 突变级数法 障碍度模型 

分 类 号：U29-3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]