基于秩分析和多项Logit模型的城乡道路客运一体化发展模式研究  

Research on the development model of urban and rural road passenger transport integration based on rank analysis and multinomial Logit model

作　　者：王佳[1] 刘静波 刘永达 WANG Jia;LIU Jingbo;LIU Yongda(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2020年第12期3224-3230,共7页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51508041);湖南省交通科技资助项目(201844)。

摘　　要：为解决城乡道路客运一体化发展过程中发展思路不清晰、发展模式混乱等问题,从票价水平、公益性免费等运营特征入手,利用秩分析理论和K聚类方法提出3种不同的城乡道路客运一体化发展模式。并以经济、人口、出行需求等作为特征变量,构建城乡道路客运一体化发展模式的多项Logit选择模型。研究结果表明:模型可按实际情况选择出合适的发展模式,这为有序推动城乡道路客运一体化发展提供了一定的理论依据和实践作用。In order to solve the problems of unclear development ideas and chaotic development models in the integrated development of urban and rural road passenger transport,this paper started with operating characteristics such as fare levels and public welfare free of charge,and used the rank analysis theory and K-means clustering method to propose three different urban and rural road passenger transport integrated development models.Based on the characteristics of economy,population,and travel demand,multinomial Logit selection models for urban-rural road passenger transport integration development models were constructed.The research results show that the model can choose a suitable development mode according to the actual situation,which provides a certain theoretical basis and practical role for the orderly promotion of the integrated development of urban and rural road passenger transport.

关 键 词：城乡道路客运一体化 发展模式 秩分析 多项Logit模型 模式选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]