两男恐惧:一种值得关注的孩子性别偏好  

Fear of Two Boys:A Concern about the Gender Structure of Children in Some Families

作　　者：石人炳[1] 杨辉 SHI Renbing;YANG Hui(Department of Sociology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei,430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人口学刊》2021年第1期15-25,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：华中科技大学2016年人文社科自主创新重大交叉项目:后独生子女政策时代的人口政策完善与计生部门职能转变(2016AD020)。

摘　　要：近些年,我国存在因一孩性别的不同而呈现相异的二孩生育意愿与行为,部分家庭担心、害怕生育两个男孩,而现有的性别偏好论和成本效用论在对这两个现象进行解释时存在不足。文章将家庭对两个男孩这一子女性别结构感到担心、害怕的现象称为“两男恐惧”,运用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中南、西南九省(区、市)数据,从理想子女性别结构、妇女分一孩性别的二孩生育打算和二孩生育行为三方面来求证部分家庭存在“两男恐惧”,以此为上述两个现象寻求另一种解释。研究发现:各群体中,除0男0女外,2男0女是目前最不受育龄妇女欢迎的子女性别结构;在理想子女性别结构为1男1女的育龄妇女中,一孩为男孩的妇女比一孩为女孩的妇女更不可能拥有二孩生育打算;在理想子女性别结构为1男1女的育龄妇女中,一孩为男孩的妇女比一孩为女孩的妇女更不可能发生二孩生育行为。上述三个研究发现共同佐证了当前部分家庭存在“两男恐惧”。最后,我国20世纪50年代以后家庭对男孩态度的演变表现为从“多男偏好”到“有男偏好”再到“两男恐惧”三个阶段,“两男恐惧”概念对低生育影响因素模型具有改进意义同时对提升当下我国妇女二孩生育水平具有政策启示。In recent years,there are two phenomena in our country,namely,the second child’s birth willing⁃ness and behavior are distinct due to the difference of the first child’s gender,and some families are wor⁃ried about two boys.However,the existing gender preference theory and cost-effectiveness theory are insuf⁃ficient in explaining them.To seek another explanation,this paper defines“fear of two boys”as a phenome⁃non that families are afraid of the gender structure of two boys only,and tries to prove it existing in some families by using nine provinces’data of 2017 China Fertility Survey and from three respects,namely,ideal gender structure of children,fertility plan and behavior of the second child.This paper finds that:(1)Ex⁃cept for no child,the gender structure of 2 boys and 0 girl is the least popular among women in childbearing age;(2)Among those who expect 1 boy and 1 girl,women with first child as a boy are less likely plan to have the second child than those with first child as a girl;(3)Among those who expect 1 boy and 1 girl,women with first child as a boy are less likely give birth to the second child than those with first child as a girl.These findings together prove that,at the present,the phenomenon of“fear of two boys”exists in some families.Finally,this paper summarizes the evolution of family attitudes towards boys since 1950s in China from“hope for many boys”to“must have one boy”and then to“fear of two boys”,and it also discusses the significance of the concept of“fear of two boys”in improving proximate determinants of low fertility model and in policy implications for improving the second child fertility level of women in China.

关 键 词：两男恐惧 理想子女性别结构 二孩生育打算 二孩生育行为 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]