流动人口二孩生育意愿真的很低吗?--基于对研究对象偏差的修正  

Is the Desire to Have a Second Birth of Floating Population Really Very Low?——Based on the Revision of the Research Object

作　　者：陈芳[1] 刘越[1] CHEN Fang;LIU Yue(Population Research Institute,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing Jiangsu,210042,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学人口研究院,江苏南京210042

出　　处：《人口学刊》2021年第1期53-63,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目:流动人口二代早期流动/留守经历对成年期的影响和社会后果研究(16BRK029);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目:“全面二孩”政策下江苏流动人口二孩生育意愿研究(2018SJA0086);南京邮电大学人文社会科学研究基金项目:低生育水平下的生育决策机制及公共政策需求研究(NYS218018)。

摘　　要：从预测未来生育水平并提供政策参考角度出发,现有关于流动人口二孩生育意愿研究的对象选择存在横向及纵向偏差。文章通过对研究对象进行修正,为更加准确地认识流动人口二孩生育意愿提供了新思路:一是纳入已经生育二孩的流动人口,二是重点关注80后和90后流动人口。基于2016年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,运用多分类Logistic回归分析流动人口的二孩生育意愿及其影响因素。分析结果表明:相对来说,80后和90后流动人口的二孩生育意愿并没有很低,打算生育二孩的比例为47.0%,高出70后流动人口8.4个百分点,也远高于现有针对流动人口以及常住人口的相关研究所显示的20%~30%;80后和90后流动人口的二孩生育意愿存在较大的地域差异,应加强不同代际和不同区域的比较研究,因地制宜地制定相关经济社会配套政策;80后和90后流动人口的二孩生育意愿受到主客观因素影响,城镇托幼机构建设要充分考虑进城务工人员随迁婴幼儿的照护服务需求,应提高流动人口城乡居民基本医疗保险的参保率以及就业流动人口生育保险的参保率,加强针对流动人口的就业指导与培训的同时注重以创业带就业,重视流动人口生育观念的正确引导,争取让近三成没有想好是否生育二孩的80后和90后流动人口按政策生育。From the perspective of predicting the future fertility level and providing policy reference,there are horizontal and vertical biases in the selection of research objects in researches about the desire to have a second birth of floating population.Through the revision of the research object,this paper provides new ideas for more accurate understanding of the desire to have a second birth of floating population:on the one hand,it includes the floating population who have already had the second birth;on the other hand,it fo⁃cuses on the post-80s and post-90s floating population.Based on the dynamic survey data of the floating population in 2016 provided by the Health and Family Planning Commission,using the multinomial logistic regression,the results show that:relatively speaking,the desire to have a second birth of the post-80s and the post-90s floating population is not very low,and the proportion of planning to have a second birth is 47.0%,8.4 percentage points higher than that of the post-70s floating population,which is also far higher than that of the existing research on floating population and resident population(about 20%-30%).There is large regional difference in the desire to have a second birth of post-80s and post-90s floating population,the comparative study about different generations and different regions should be strengthen,and relevant economic and social supporting policies should be formulated according to local conditions.The desire to have a second birth of post-80s and post-90s floating population is affected by subjective and objective factors,the construction of urban nurseries and kindergartens should give full consideration to the care service needs of floating population’s infants,the coverage rate of basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents of floating population and the coverage rate of maternity insurance for the employed floating population should be improved,employment guidance and training for the floating population should be strengthen,more attention should be p

关 键 词：流动人口 生育意愿 80后 90后 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]