2019年全球能源供需分析——基于《BP世界能源统计年鉴(2020)》  

Analysis on World Energy Supply&Demand in 2019—Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy(2020)

作　　者：李洪言[1] 赵朔 林傲丹 刘飞 李雷[1] 代晓东[1] Li Hongyan;Zhao Shuo;Lin Aodan;LiuFei;Li Lei;Dai Xiaodong(Institute of Petroleum Engineering,Shengli Institute of China University of Petroleum,Dongying,Shandong,257061,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学胜利学院油气工程学院,山东东营257061

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2020年第6期122-130,共9页Natural Gas and Oil

基　　金：2019年山东省高等学校“青创科技计划”项目(2019KJA024);中国石油大学胜利学院春晖重大项目(KY201801)。

摘　　要：为了疏理全球能源供需情况,针对2020年6月公布的《BP世界能源统计年鉴(2020)》进行了分析和总结。分析结果表明:2019年,全球能源消费年均增速减缓至1.3%;石油探明储量和产量都小幅降低,消费量低于历史均速,消费增长主要由中国拉动;天然气探明储量和产量依然是中东和独联体居于前列,消费增速放缓,但在能源中占比(24.2%)仍创新高,由美国引领天然气需求增长;亚太地区煤炭探明储量及产量居于首位,全球煤炭需求下降创历史新高,占比下滑至27%;可再生能源增长创历史新高,占能源消费增长总量41%,且在发电量占比中首次超过核能,其中中国增长幅度最大;碳排放量增长放缓(0.5%)但仍然很高。分析结果以期为能源形势发展提供参考。To compile the supply and demand situation of global energy,the BP World Energy Prospect(2020)issued in June 2020 is analyzed and summarized in this paper.The analysis results show that in 2019,the average annual growth rate of global energy consumption slowed to 1.3%.The proven oil reserves and production both decreased slightly,consumption was lower than the historical average,and consumption growth was mainly driven by China.The proven reserves and production of natural gas continue to be the highest in the Middle East and the CIS,and consumption growth has slowed down,but its share in total world energy(at 24.2%)is still at a record high.The growth of natural gas demand is led by the United States of America.Asia Pacific tops in proven coal reserves and production as global coal demand falls at a record rate,with proportion of total energy consumption declining to 27%.Renewable energy is growing at an all-time high,accounting for 41%of the total increase in energy consumption and,for the first time,surpassing nuclear energy in the share of power generation.China has the highest renewable energy growth rate;carbon emissions growth rate has slowed(0.5%)but the figure is still high.This analysis results could provide reference for predicting global enegry growth trends.

关 键 词：BP 2019年 全球能源 供需 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]