美国战略界为何没能预见苏联解体——基于认知相符理论的解析  

Why the U.S.Strategic Circle Cannot Foresee the Collapse of the Soviet Union:An Analysis Based on Theory of Cognitive Consistency

作　　者：吴大辉[1] 王洋[2] Wu Dahui;Wang Yang

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系 [2]清华大学欧亚战略研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2020年第6期3-37,共35页Russian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“国际秩序重构中俄罗斯转型的作用与影响”(项目批准号:12JJD810022)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国拥有最庞大的苏联研究机构和最强大的情报系统,但为何没能预见苏联解体?本文借用国际政治认知学派代表人物罗伯特·杰维斯错误知觉研究中的认知相符理论,解析美国战略界集体预测中对苏联解体的全方位误判。在经济方面,美国经济学家基于苏联1950年开始的20年间经济整体向好的历史经验认知,对苏联未来经济走势判断持过分乐观态度。在军事方面,他们高估了苏联军队在政权稳定中守护者的作用,低估了苏联军方人员在政治过程中的自主性,坚信戈尔巴乔夫可以在最后关头动用武力来保卫苏联。在外交方面,他们认为东欧的和平剧变对苏联而言是一种解脱,忽视了东欧政治进程与苏联国内改革之间的“影响循环流”,以及东欧剧变对苏联国内民族分离主义的鼓舞作用。在意识形态领域,苏联末期社会意识形态的衰落被错误解读,意识形态构成苏联政权主要合法性的事实被忽视。有鉴于以上对苏联判断中全面的认知相符,最终导致美国战略界未能预见苏联解体。The U.S.has the most institutes on Soviet studies and the most powerful intelligence system,but why did it still fail to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union?Based on the“Cognitive Consistency Theory”of Robert Jervis,a prominent scholar of international relations best known for his theories on perception and misperception,this article analyzes the all-round misjudgment of predictions of the U.S.strategic circle regarding the Soviet Union.As far as economy is concerned,based on the historical experience of the Soviet Union’s economic upturn from 1970 to 1990,American economists are overly optimistic about the future economic trends of the Soviet Union.In terms of military affairs,they overestimated Gorbachev’s control over the Soviet army and underestimated the autonomy of Soviet military personnel in the political process.They firmly believed that Gorbachev could adopt forces to defend the Soviet Union at the last minute.As to diplomacy,they held that the peaceful upheaval in Eastern Europe was a relief for the Soviet Union,and ignored the“circular flow of influence”between the political process in Eastern Europe and internal reforms of the Soviet Union.Besides,they also ignored effects of the upheaval in Eastern Europe on the domestic separatism in the Soviet Union.In the field of ideology,the decline of ideology at the end of the Soviet Union was misinterpreted,and the fact that ideology constituted the main legitimacy of the Soviet regime was ignored.In view of the above-mentioned comprehensive misunderstanding of the Soviet Union,the American strategic community ultimately failed to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union.

关 键 词：苏联解体 美国苏联学 战略预测 美苏关系 认知相符理论 

分 类 号：D751[政治法律—政治学]