俄罗斯社会对中俄关系的认知演进——以“全俄中心”民调数据为依据  

Evolution of Russian Public Opinions towards Sino-Russian Relations:Based on Data of Russian Public Opinion Research Center

作　　者：曲文轶 Qu Wenyi

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2020年第6期38-71,共34页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下全球价值链重构对国际经济权力转移的影响及中国应对策略研究”(项目批准号:20&ZD143)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文主要以俄罗斯知名民调机构“全俄社会舆论研究中心”的涉华民调为依据,分析了苏联解体以来俄罗斯社会对中俄关系的认知演进及其影响因素。主要结论如下:(1)20世纪末、21世纪初,尽管总体上俄罗斯社会已经形成了对华友好认知,但“威胁论”也有一定的市场,并且伴随中国经济崛起,在2009年全球金融危机前还有所增强。乌克兰危机则成为分水岭,2014年后,俄罗斯社会对华友好的主导格局得以形成,消极认知大幅下降。(2)俄罗斯社会对中国经济角色的认知,也因乌克兰危机发生了巨大变化,由廉价商品和劳动力的供应者,转变为取代西方的优先经济伙伴。但俄罗斯人对中国参与远东开发和劳工移民仍心怀疑虑,对中国商品质量低劣的“刻板印象”还广泛存在。(3)俄罗斯社会对华认知与角色定位,受制于俄西关系以及中国崛起这两个变量,前者作为一阶约束条件存在,后者的影响取决于俄与西方关系这一外在环境的性质。(4)西伯利亚和远东地区的“中国威胁论”大大减弱,但莫斯科和圣彼得堡这两个政治经济中心却继承了衣钵,成为新的传播中心,需要加以关注。Mainly based on China-related opinion polls of the famous Russian Public Opinion Research Center,this paper analyzes the evolution and impact factors of Russian society on Sino-Russian relationship since the collapse of the Soviet Union.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)At the turn of the 21st century,although Russian society has generally formed friendly perceptions towards China,yet the“China threat theory”still has a certain market.And with the rise of China’s economy,it has even been accepted by more people before the global financial crisis in 2009.The Ukraine crisis has become a watershed.After 2014,the dominant pattern of Russian society’s friendship with China has been formed,and negative perceptions were held by fewer people.Russian society’s perceptions of China’s economic role have also changed dramatically due to the Ukraine crisis.China has been regarded from a supplier of cheap goods and labor to a prior economic partner to replace the West.However,Russians are still skeptical about China’s participation in the development of the Far East and labor migration,and their“stereotype”of the inferior quality of Chinese goods still exists widely.(3)Russian society’s perceptions and role orientation of China are mainly influenced by two variables.One is the relationship between Russia and the West.And the other is China’s rise.The former exists as the first-order constraint,while the latter depends on the former.(4)The“China Threat Theory”in Siberia and the Far East has been greatly weakened,but Moscow and St.Petersburg,the two political and economic centers,have become new communication centers,which are worthy of attention.

关 键 词：俄罗斯民意 中俄关系 对华认知 俄罗斯远东 乌克兰危机 

分 类 号：D829[政治法律—政治学]