基于运行信息的断路器故障率预测研究  

Failure Rate Prediction of Circuit Breaker based on Operational Information

作　　者：薛淑胜 冷映丽 张琳 XUE Shusheng;LENG Yingli;ZHANG Lin(CRRC Nanjing Puzhen CO.,Ltd,Nanjing 210031,China)

机构地区：[1]中车南京浦镇车辆有限公司总体研发部系统工程组,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2021年第1期112-115,共4页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60870009)。

摘　　要：目前电子设备元器件故障率的预测多根据标准开展,降低了故障率预测的准确性和可信性.提出了基于运行信息预测断路器故障率的方法,为消除设计应力的影响,定义了额定故障率.给出了基于多项目运行信息建立额定故障率的模型及计算方法,并以已运行深圳四号线项目和南京二号线项目为例说明额定故障率计算,并应用额定故障率对新开发的上海十三号线二期项目中断路器故障率进行了预测,同时与标准预测进行了比较.Aiming at the reduced accuracy and credibility of the failure rate of the failure rate predication based on the standards,a method for predicting the failure rate of a circuit breaker based on operational information is proposed.The influence of design stress is eliminated,and the rated failure rate is defined.The model and calculation method for establishing rated failure rate based on multi-project operation information are presented,and the rated failure rate is calculated based on the operation of Shenzhen No.4 line project and Nanjing No.2 line project.The rated failure rate is applied to the newly developed Shanghai No.13 line,and failure rate of the circuit breaker in phase II is predicted and compared with the standard forecast.

关 键 词：断路器 故障率 预测 

分 类 号：U269.6[机械工程—车辆工程]