京津冀城市群制造业结构变迁与空间集聚影响因素分析  

Manufacturing Industry Structure Changes and Spatial Agglomeration Influence Factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：周伟[1] 赵艳[2] 宁煊 Zhou Wei;Zhao Yan;Ning Xuan(School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Beijing 100070,China;college of business administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,北京100070 [2]首都经济贸易大学工商管理学院,北京100070

出　　处：《地理科学》2020年第11期1921-1929,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJL054)资助。

摘　　要：运用修正的地理集聚指数(EG),并通过构建空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM)等空间计量方法,综合分析京津冀城市群制造业空间变化趋势与集聚影响因素。研究发现:①"京津双城"技术密集型制造业转移扩散特征明显;②资本要素对京津冀城市群制造业集聚有显著促进作用,知识密集度的影响不显著,劳动要素密集度的影响为负;③金融利率高低与制造业集聚呈显著负相关关系;政府干预度和宏观税负对制造业集聚有正向影响效应;④交通基础设施与市场规模与京津冀城市群制造业集聚有正相关性,而外商直接投资(FDI)与京津冀城市群制造业集聚呈现负相关关系。The manufacturing industry plays an increasingly important role in supporting the national economy. Meanwhile, as a major historical decision of China, the Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei coordinated development strategy has entered into a new stage. Therefore, it is of great impetus and solid foundation in promoting the region to build a world-class competitive Urban Agglomeration by exploring the answers to the following two questions: the first is what are the characteristics of the spatial distribution and agglomeration trend of manufacturing industry in this region? The other is what are the factors that cause the variation of the latter?Essentially, the transferring and diffusion process of manufacturing industry under the spatial layout involves multiple dimensions. Therefore, based on the revised geographic aggregation index(EG), spatial econometric methods such as spatial lag model(SLM) and spatial error model(SEM) are constructed systematically to analyze the characteristics of spatial variation trend and influencing factors of manufacturing industry in BeijingTianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. In addition to the deduction that the spatial distribution of different types of manufacturing industry has different characteristics, through rigorous calculation and analysis, the research also obtains the following conclusions: 1) Compared with Hebei Province, the characteristics of transfer and diffusion of technology intensive manufacturing industry in Beijing and Tianjin are more obvious;2) Capital factors have a significant promoting effect on manufacturing agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, while the impact of knowledge intensity on manufacturing agglomeration in the region is not significant, and unlike the former two, the influence of labor factor intensity is negative;3) The level of financial interest rates has a prominent negative correlation with manufacturing agglomeration, on the contrary, government intervention and macro tax burden have a positive promotion on manufacturing agglo

关 键 词：京津冀城市群 制造业结构 空间集聚 影响因素 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]