基于非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型在不同海域的适应性研究  

Research on the adaptability of evaporation duct prediction model in different sea areas based on non-iterative air-sea flux algorithm

作　　者：刘立行 周树道[2] 盛峥 张树时 邓以勤 郝玉珠 LIU Li-hang;ZHOU Shu-dao;SHENG Zheng;ZHANG Shu-shi;DENG Yi-qin;HAO Yu-zhu(Unit 63983 of PLA,Wuxi 214000 China;School of Meteorology and oceanography,University of Defense Science and technology,Nanjing 210000 China;Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science,Nanjing 210000 China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 China;Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Area Meteorological Bureau,Pingtan 350400 China;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Service Center,Hohhot 050051 China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军63983部队,江苏无锡214000 [2]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京210000 [3]中国气象科学研究院南京气象科技创新研究院,江苏南京210000 [4]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [5]平潭综合实验区气象局,福建平潭350400 [6]内蒙古自治区气象服务中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《海洋预报》2020年第6期52-64,共13页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41875045、41775039)。

摘　　要：利用非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型(Liu-Li模型)对我国渤海海域试验数据及大西洋海域FNL分析资料进行诊断,分析了模型对不同海域海上气象要素的敏感性,对试验时间内蒸发波导高度进行了预测,并与观测的实际波导高度进行了比较分析。此外,将Liu-Li模型与Babin模型、NPS模型、P-J模型和伪折射率模型的预测诊断效果进行对比。结果表明:Liu-Li模型的计算结果与实际观测波导高度及其他4种模型计算结果的变化趋势基本一致,能较好地反应该时段内海上蒸发波导高度的变化趋势,并对不同层结状态下的气象要素作出敏感性响应。在渤海海域,Liu-Li模型在不稳定海气层结状态下计算得到的波导高度略低于实际观测波导高度,而在稳定海气层结状态下Liu-Li模型计算得到的波导高度结果偏大,特别是海气层结状态越稳定时,Liu-Li模型的计算会出现异常值。在西北大西洋海域,Liu-Li模型对蒸发波导高度的诊断与Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型相近,但Liu-Li模型计算稳定性更好;同时,大多数时次内Liu-Li模型的计算结果与风速和相对湿度的变化趋势较为接近,在海气条件复杂多变的情况下模型计算的波导高度容易产生变化波动。试验表明Liu-Li模型能在不同海域进行有效的蒸发波导诊断预报。研究初步探讨了Liu-Li模型在不同海域的适应性,为非迭代海-气通量算法蒸发波导预测模型的发展提出了可行性研究。In order to further study the prediction and diagnosis ability of the evaporation duct prediction model(Liu-Li model)based on non-iterative air-sea flux algorithm,the Liu-Li model is used to diagnose the experimental data in the Bohai Sea and the FNL reanalysis data in the Atlantic Ocean and to analyze its sensitivity to the marine meteorological variables in different sea areas.The height of evaporation duct during the experimental period is predicted by the Liu-Li model and is compared with observations.In addition,the Liu-Li model is compared with the Babin model,NPS model,P-J model and pseudo-refractive index model in terms of their prediction and diagnosis effect.The results show that the calculation results of the Liu-Li model are basically consistent with the observed duct height and the variation trend of the other four models.It can better reflect the variation trend of the sea evaporation duct height during this time period.,and sensitively responds to meteorological variables under different stratification states.In the Bohai Sea,the duct height calculated by the Liu-Li model in the unstable sea-atmosphere stratification state is slightly lower than observation,while the duct height calculated by the Liu-Li model in the stable sea-atmosphere stratification state is slightly larger.In particular,abnormal values tends to appear in the calculation of Liu-Li model when sea-atmosphere stratification state becomes stable enough.In the Northwest Atlantic Ocean,the Liu-Li model's diagnosis of the evaporation duct height is similar to the Babin model,NPS model,and pseudo-refractive index model,but the Liu-Li model has better calculation stability.In most of the time,the calculation results of Liu-Li model are close to the variation trend of wind speed and relative humidity.The height of the evaporation duct calculated by the Liu-Li model is prone to change and fluctuation under complex air-sea conditions.Experiments show that the Liu-Li model can be used to effectively diagnose and predict the evaporation duct

关 键 词：蒸发波导 蒸发波导预测模型 非迭代海-气通量算法 适应性 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]