EC细网格10m风场产品在渤、黄海海域的预报能力检验与评估  

Evaluation of the ECMWF forecast skills for the 10 m wind field in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea

作　　者：连喜虎 刘桂艳[1] 高松[1] 王彬[1] 白志鹏[2] LIAN Xi-hu;LIU Gui-yan;GAO Song;WANG Bin;BAI Zhi-peng(North Sea Marine Forecast Center of State Oceanic Administration,Q ingdao 266033 China;Chinese People's Liberation Army 61741 troops,Beijing 100083 China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266033 [2]中国人民解放军61741部队,北京100083

出　　处：《海洋预报》2020年第6期74-82,共9页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：海洋环境安全保障专项(2017YFC1405004);东亚海洋合作平台项目。

摘　　要：基于ECMWF(EC)细网格的24 h、48 h和72 h预报的10 m风场资料,与选取的渤、黄海海域9个浮标的10 m实测风速和风向进行对比检验。结果表明:(1)EC细网格24 h预报的10 m风速与各浮标站的实测风速预报偏差中位数在0.11~0.52 m/s之间,EC预报的10 m风速在渤、黄海海区预报结果总体略偏大,但在黄海中部预报效果优于渤海和黄海北部海区;(2)EC细网格预报的10 m风速与实测风速相关性较好,选取的9个浮标站中8个浮标站的24 h预报风速和实测风速相关系数达到0.85以上,预报偏差离散度小,预报效果较好;(3)不同风速条件下,EC细网格的5级风预报结果与实测风速最为接近,对大于5级风的预报结果偏小,而小于5级风的预报结果偏大;风速越小,风向预报偏差样本的离散度越大。不同风向条件下,各向的24 h预报风向平均偏差在-20°~12°之间,48 h和72 h平均偏差分别为-22°~14°和-20°~15°之间,24 h预报风向结果优于48 h和72 h预报风向。在实况为偏北向风时,风向平均偏差较大,实况为偏南向风时,风向平均偏差较少。The 10 m wind field from ECMWF are evaluated by comparing with the 10m wind speed and direction observed by the 9 buoys in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.The results show that the median deviation of the 10m wind speed between ECMWF forecast and bouy obervation is 0.11~0.52 m/s.The 10 m wind speed predicted by ECMWF is generally larger than that of the observation in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea,and the forecast accuracy is higher for the centeral Yellow Sea compared to the Bohai Sea and the northern Yeallow Sea area.The 10 m wind speed predicted by ECMWF correlates well with that of the bouy observation,with correlation coefficient above 0.85 for 24-hours wind speed prediction in 8 bouy stations,and the dispersion of forecast deviation is small.Under different wind speed conditions,the ECMWF prediction for the 5-level wind is most closest to the observations.The wind speed is under predicted by ECMWF for the wind above the level of 5,while it is over predicted for the wind below the level of 5.The smaller the wind speed,the larger the dispersion of the wind direction forecast deviation samples.Under different wind direction conditions,the average deviation of the 24-hour,48-hour and 72-hour forecast is-20°~12°,-22°~14°and-20°~15°,respectively.The wind direction forecast accuracy of 24 hours is higher than that of the 48 and 72 hour forecast wind directions.The deviation of wind direction is larger under northerly wind condision,while it is lower under southerly wind condision.

关 键 词：10m风 EC细网格 平均偏差 相关系数 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]